Weekly Market Pulse - Week ending July 25, 2025
Market developments
Equities: Global equities advanced over the week, led by strong U.S. earnings and trade optimism, thanks to gains in tech, AI-related stocks and standout results from banks and chipmakers like NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC and others as Alphabet communicated an increase in AI related spending this year. Japan also had a strong week, led by the auto industry as a trade deal was struck between them and the U.S.
Fixed Income: Bond markets were relatively soft but stable. Treasury yields eased slightly and the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate index posted minimal weekly gains. Broader narratives continue to factor sticky inflation, limited near-term Fed rate-cut expectations (July cut probability ~5%, September less than 60%) and ongoing tariff-related uncertainty.
Commodities: Energy markets saw oil prices fall this week, precious metals like gold also eased slightly from elevated levels. Copper built on it’s strong 2025 and is now up over 40% YTD.
Performance (price return)
SECURITY |
PRICE |
WEEK |
1 MONTH |
3 MONTH |
YTD |
Equities ($Local) |
|
|
|
|
|
S&P/TSX Composite |
27,494.35 |
0.66% |
3.49% |
11.27% |
11.19% |
S&P 500 |
6,388.64 |
1.46% |
4.87% |
15.63% |
8.62% |
NASDAQ |
21,108.32 |
1.02% |
5.68% |
21.43% |
9.31% |
DAX |
24,217.50 |
-0.30% |
3.06% |
8.88% |
21.64% |
NIKKEI 225 |
41,456.23 |
4.11% |
6.46% |
16.11% |
3.91% |
Shanghai Composite |
3,593.66 |
1.67% |
3.98% |
9.06% |
7.22% |
Fixed Income (Performance in %) |
|
|
|
|
|
Canada Aggregate Bond |
234.43 |
0.21% |
-1.01% |
-0.87% |
-0.40% |
US Aggregate Bond |
2263.38 |
0.18% |
-0.19% |
0.70% |
3.40% |
Europe Aggregate Bond |
245.15 |
-0.01% |
-0.28% |
-0.12% |
0.57% |
US High Yield Bond |
28.19 |
0.36% |
0.99% |
3.93% |
5.08% |
Commodities ($USD) |
|
|
|
|
|
Oil |
65.07 |
-3.37% |
0.23% |
3.25% |
-9.27% |
Gold |
3337.15 |
-0.38% |
0.14% |
0.53% |
27.15% |
Copper |
577.20 |
3.48% |
17.38% |
19.26% |
43.35% |
Currencies ($USD) |
|
|
|
|
|
US Dollar Index |
97.69 |
-0.81% |
0.01% |
-1.79% |
-9.95% |
Loonie |
1.3707 |
0.14% |
0.14% |
1.14% |
4.94% |
Euro |
0.8518 |
0.97% |
0.69% |
3.30% |
13.40% |
Yen |
147.67 |
0.77% |
-1.65% |
-2.71% |
6.45% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of July 25, 2025
Central Bank Interest Rates
Central Bank |
Current Rate |
December 2025 |
Bank of Canada |
2.75% |
2.59% |
U.S. Federal Reserve |
4.50% |
3.88% |
European Central Bank |
2.00% |
1.77% |
Bank of England |
4.25% |
3.75% |
Bank of Japan |
0.50% |
0.68% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of July 25, 2025
*Expected rates are based on bond futures pricing
Macro developments
Canada – Canadian Retail Sales Surge
Retail sales in Canada are estimated to have increased by 1.6% in June, marking the largest monthly rise since December. This follows a 1.1% drop in May, primarily driven by a 3.6% decline in motor vehicle and parts dealers. Gasoline station sales fell for the third month in a row, with a 2.1% decrease in volume.
U.S. – Composite PMI Shows Strong Growth
The S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI rose to 54.6 in July, indicating the fastest growth pace of the year. Strong services activity contributed to this upturn, although manufacturing growth was slower. Input price inflation increased, reflecting rising wage costs and tariffs, ultimately leading to higher output prices.
International – U.K. PMI Experiences Minor Decline, U.K. Retail Sales Rebound, Eurozone Economic Activity Expands, ECB Maintains Interest Rates, Japan's Composite PMI Steady
The U.K. S&P Global Composite PMI fell to 51 in July, slightly below expectations. While the services sector grew, manufacturing continued to decline. Private sector employment fell for the tenth consecutive month, driven by rising labour costs and tariff pressures from the U.S.
U.K. retail sales rose by 0.9% in June, recovering from a significant drop the previous month but falling short of market expectations. Food store sales increased, driven by better supermarket performance. Online sales also saw growth, while non-food stores reported a slight increase amid promotional activities.
The Eurozone Composite PMI increased to 51 in July, reflecting the strongest growth in private economic activity in 11 months. Service providers saw significant activity growth, while manufacturing showed signs of stabilization. Input cost inflation eased, and for the first time in five months, firms increased staffing levels.
The ECB decided to keep interest rates unchanged in July, concluding its easing cycle after eight cuts. Policymakers are assessing the impact of trade uncertainties and potential U.S. tariffs. Inflation reached the ECB's 2% target in June, prompting a cautious approach to future policy adjustments.
The S&P Global Japan Composite PMI remained at 51.5 in July, indicating ongoing private sector growth for the fourth consecutive month. Services activity rose, offsetting a decline in manufacturing output. Despite a slight increase in new exports, employment growth slowed, and inflationary pressures persisted.
Quick look ahead
DATE |
COUNTRY / REGION |
EVENT |
|
SURVEY |
PRIOR |
30-Jul-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
GDP SA QoQ |
2Q A |
|
0.6 |
30-Jul-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
GDP SA YoY |
2Q A |
1.2 |
1.5 |
30-Jul-25 |
United States |
GDP Annualized QoQ |
2Q A |
2.4 |
(0.5) |
30-Jul-25 |
Canada |
Bank of Canada Rate Decision |
|
2.8 |
2.8 |
30-Jul-25 |
United States |
FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) |
|
4.5 |
4.5 |
30-Jul-25 |
United States |
FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) |
|
4.3 |
4.3 |
30-Jul-25 |
Japan |
Retail Sales MoM |
Jun |
0.5 |
(0.2) |
30-Jul-25 |
Japan |
Retail Sales YoY |
Jun |
1.8 |
2.2 |
30-Jul-25 |
China |
Composite PMI |
Jul |
|
50.7 |
31-Jul-25 |
Japan |
BOJ Target Rate |
|
0.5 |
0.5 |
31-Jul-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
Unemployment Rate |
Jun |
6.3 |
6.3 |
31-Jul-25 |
United States |
PCE Price Index MoM |
Jun |
0.3 |
0.1 |
31-Jul-25 |
United States |
PCE Price Index YoY |
Jun |
2.5 |
2.3 |
31-Jul-25 |
United States |
Core PCE Price Index MoM |
Jun |
0.3 |
0.2 |
31-Jul-25 |
United States |
Core PCE Price Index YoY |
Jun |
2.7 |
2.7 |
31-Jul-25 |
Canada |
GDP MoM |
May |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
31-Jul-25 |
Canada |
GDP YoY |
May |
1.0 |
1.3 |
31-Jul-25 |
Japan |
Jobless Rate |
Jun |
2.5 |
2.5 |
31-Jul-25 |
China |
S&P Global China PMI Mfg |
Jul |
50.2 |
50.4 |
01-Aug-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI Estimate YoY |
Jul P |
1.9 |
2.0 |
01-Aug-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI MoM |
Jul P |
(0.1) |
0.3 |
01-Aug-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI Core YoY |
Jul P |
2.3 |
2.3 |
01-Aug-25 |
United States |
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls |
Jul |
110.0 |
147.0 |
01-Aug-25 |
United States |
Change in Private Payrolls |
Jul |
100.0 |
74.0 |
01-Aug-25 |
United States |
Unemployment Rate |
Jul |
4.2 |
4.1 |
01-Aug-25 |
Canada |
S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI |
Jul |
|
45.6 |
01-Aug-25 |
United States |
ISM Manufacturing |
Jul |
49.5 |
49.0 |
A = Advance
P = Preliminary
The Asset Allocation Team at NEI Investments
Judith Chan, CFA – Vice President, Head of Asset Allocation
Mateo Marks, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Adam Ludwick, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Anthony Rago, B.A.Sc. – Senior Asset Allocation Analyst
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