Weekly Market Pulse - Week ending September 12, 2025
Market developments
Equities: Global equities generally pushed higher, driven by optimism surrounding potential central bank policy easing and strong performance in the technology sector. Asian markets, particularly Japan, led the rally with the Nikkei hitting all-time highs, fueled by enthusiasm for AI and chip demand.
Fixed Income: Bond markets rallied as weaker U.S. hiring data reinforced expectations of interest rate cuts. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to around 4.1%, with futures markets pricing easing beginning in September. European yields also retreated and Japanese bonds rallied amid political uncertainty.
Commodities: Precious metals led the commodity sector, with gold reaching record highs, supported by lower yields, a weaker dollar and central bank demand. Oil prices experienced volatility, swinging between losses due to OPEC+ supply speculation and rebounds amid concerns over Russian supply disruptions.
Performance (price return)
SECURITY |
PRICE |
WEEK |
1 MONTH |
3 MONTH |
YTD |
Equities ($Local) |
|
|
|
|
|
S&P/TSX Composite |
29,283.82 |
0.80% |
4.88% |
10.02% |
18.42% |
S&P 500 |
6,584.29 |
1.59% |
2.15% |
8.92% |
11.95% |
NASDAQ |
22,141.10 |
2.03% |
2.12% |
12.61% |
14.66% |
DAX |
23,698.15 |
0.43% |
-1.36% |
-0.31% |
19.03% |
NIKKEI 225 |
44,768.12 |
4.07% |
4.80% |
17.28% |
12.22% |
Shanghai Composite |
3,870.60 |
1.52% |
5.58% |
13.75% |
15.48% |
Fixed Income (Performance in %) |
|
|
|
|
|
Canada Aggregate Bond |
241.27 |
0.89% |
2.06% |
2.02% |
2.51% |
US Aggregate Bond |
2332.29 |
0.55% |
2.01% |
3.37% |
6.54% |
Europe Aggregate Bond |
245.93 |
-0.07% |
0.25% |
-0.30% |
0.89% |
US High Yield Bond |
28.71 |
0.30% |
1.51% |
3.61% |
7.02% |
Commodities ($USD) |
|
|
|
|
|
Oil |
62.58 |
1.15% |
-0.93% |
-8.02% |
-12.74% |
Gold |
3642.28 |
1.55% |
8.78% |
7.57% |
38.78% |
Copper |
458.55 |
2.30% |
1.33% |
-5.17% |
13.88% |
Currencies ($USD) |
|
|
|
|
|
US Dollar Index |
97.61 |
-0.16% |
-0.49% |
-0.32% |
-10.02% |
Loonie |
1.3848 |
-0.13% |
-0.55% |
-1.76% |
3.87% |
Euro |
0.8525 |
0.11% |
0.47% |
1.27% |
13.30% |
Yen |
147.68 |
-0.17% |
0.11% |
-2.84% |
6.45% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 12, 2025
Central Bank Interest Rates
Central Bank |
Current Rate |
December 2025 |
Bank of Canada |
2.75% |
2.37% |
U.S. Federal Reserve |
4.50% |
3.63% |
European Central Bank |
2.00% |
1.88% |
Bank of England |
4.00% |
3.88% |
Bank of Japan |
0.50% |
0.63% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 12, 2025
*Expected rates are based on bond futures pricing
Macro developments
Canada – No Notable Releases
U.S. – Producer Prices Decline, Inflation Rate Rises
Producer prices in the U.S. fell 0.1% month-over-month in August, marking the first decrease in four months. This followed a revised 0.7% rise in July and was below expectations of a 0.3% increase. Costs for services dropped 0.2%, with significant declines in machinery and vehicle wholesaling. Year-on-year, producer prices rose 2.6%, below both the previous month's revised rate and forecasts.
The U.S. annual inflation rate reached 2.9% in August, the highest since January. Key contributors to this increase included food and vehicle prices, while energy costs rose for the first time in seven months. Monthly, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4%, surpassing expectations. Core inflation remained steady at 3.1%, indicating stability in underlying price pressures.
International – European Central Bank Maintains Rates, Japan's Producer Prices Increase, China Faces Consumer Price Drop
The European Central Bank held its three key interest rates steady, reflecting stable inflation near the 2% target. New projections forecast headline inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, with slight declines in the following years. The Governing Council remains committed to a cautious approach to monetary policy, emphasizing data-driven decisions.
Japan's producer prices rose 2.7% year-on-year in August 2025, reflecting stronger cost pressures across various sectors. Notable increases were seen in transport equipment and food prices, while certain areas like electrical machinery experienced slower growth. Monthly, prices declined by 0.2%, exceeding forecasts for a smaller decrease.
China's consumer prices fell 0.4% year-on-year in August 2025, the sharpest decline since February. Food prices, particularly pork, saw significant drops due to high supply and weak demand. However, non-food inflation increased, driven by government subsidies in sectors like housing and healthcare. Core inflation rose to its highest level in 18 months, while monthly CPI remained flat.
Quick look ahead
DATE |
COUNTRY / REGION |
EVENT |
|
SURVEY |
PRIOR |
14-Sep-25 |
China |
Retail Sales YoY |
Aug |
3.8 |
3.7 |
14-Sep-25 |
China |
Retail Sales YTD YoY |
Aug |
4.7 |
4.8 |
16-Sep-25 |
United Kingdom |
ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths |
Jul |
4.7 |
4.7 |
16-Sep-25 |
United States |
Retail Sales Advance MoM |
Aug |
0.2 |
0.5 |
16-Sep-25 |
United States |
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM |
Aug |
0.4 |
0.3 |
16-Sep-25 |
United States |
Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas |
Aug |
0.5 |
0.2 |
16-Sep-25 |
Canada |
CPI NSA MoM |
Aug |
0.1 |
0.3 |
16-Sep-25 |
Canada |
CPI YoY |
Aug |
2.0 |
1.7 |
17-Sep-25 |
United Kingdom |
CPI MoM |
Aug |
0.3 |
0.1 |
17-Sep-25 |
United Kingdom |
CPI YoY |
Aug |
3.8 |
3.8 |
17-Sep-25 |
United Kingdom |
CPI Core YoY |
Aug |
3.6 |
3.8 |
17-Sep-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI YoY |
Aug F |
2.1 |
2.1 |
17-Sep-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI MoM |
Aug F |
0.2 |
0.2 |
17-Sep-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI Core YoY |
Aug F |
2.3 |
2.3 |
17-Sep-25 |
Canada |
Bank of Canada Rate Decision |
|
2.5 |
2.8 |
17-Sep-25 |
United States |
FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) |
|
4.3 |
4.5 |
17-Sep-25 |
United States |
FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) |
|
4.0 |
4.3 |
18-Sep-25 |
United Kingdom |
Bank of England Bank Rate |
|
4.0 |
4.0 |
18-Sep-25 |
Japan |
Natl CPI YoY |
Aug |
2.8 |
3.1 |
18-Sep-25 |
Japan |
Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY |
Aug |
2.7 |
3.1 |
19-Sep-25 |
Japan |
BOJ Target Rate |
|
0.5 |
0.5 |
19-Sep-25 |
United Kingdom |
Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel MoM |
Aug |
0.4 |
0.6 |
19-Sep-25 |
United Kingdom |
Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel YoY |
Aug |
0.6 |
1.1 |
19-Sep-25 |
United Kingdom |
Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel MoM |
Aug |
0.7 |
0.5 |
19-Sep-25 |
United Kingdom |
Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel YoY |
Aug |
0.8 |
1.3 |
19-Sep-25 |
Canada |
Retail Sales MoM |
Jul |
|
1.5 |
19-Sep-25 |
Canada |
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM |
Jul |
|
1.9 |
F = Final
The Asset Allocation Team at NEI Investments
Judith Chan, CFA – Vice President, Head of Asset Allocation
Mateo Marks, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Adam Ludwick, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Anthony Rago, B.A.Sc. – Senior Asset Allocation Analyst
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