Weekly Market Pulse - Week ending September 19, 2025
Market developments
Equities: Global equity markets experienced a mixed performance during the week. In the U.S., stronger-than-expected economic data, such as revised Q2 GDP figures and lower jobless claims, dampened hopes for near-term Federal Reserve easing, leading to a decline in major indices. Asian markets showed a mixed tone with Japan and China climbing higher, while India dropped lower to end the week.
Fixed Income: U.S. Treasury yields generally rose during the week, influenced by the stronger economic data. The U.S. Federal Reserve had delivered a 25 basis point rate cut the previous week, which initially steepened the Treasury curve. However, subsequent data releases led to a rise in yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing. Corporate credit markets showed resilience, with investment-grade spreads hitting multi-decade low.
Commodities: The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index (BCOM) had its strongest monthly close in three years, driven by strength in metals and energy. Industrial and precious metals prices were buoyed by supply disruptions, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical tension.
Performance (price return)
SECURITY |
PRICE |
WEEK |
1 MONTH |
3 MONTH |
YTD |
Equities ($Local) |
|
|
|
|
|
S&P/TSX Composite |
29,761.28 |
-0.02% |
5.02% |
11.25% |
20.35% |
S&P 500 |
6,643.70 |
-0.31% |
2.75% |
8.19% |
12.96% |
NASDAQ |
22,484.07 |
-0.65% |
4.36% |
11.48% |
16.43% |
DAX |
23,739.47 |
0.42% |
-1.71% |
0.38% |
19.24% |
NIKKEI 225 |
45,354.99 |
0.69% |
6.98% |
14.58% |
13.69% |
Shanghai Composite |
3,828.11 |
0.21% |
-1.04% |
11.01% |
14.21% |
Fixed Income (Performance in %) |
|
|
|
|
|
Canada Aggregate Bond |
240.82 |
-0.15% |
2.00% |
1.51% |
2.32% |
US Aggregate Bond |
2318.61 |
-0.26% |
1.00% |
1.96% |
5.92% |
Europe Aggregate Bond |
245.64 |
0.00% |
0.15% |
-0.13% |
0.77% |
US High Yield Bond |
28.73 |
-0.25% |
0.85% |
2.72% |
7.07% |
Commodities ($USD) |
|
|
|
|
|
Oil |
65.32 |
4.21% |
3.27% |
0.12% |
-8.92% |
Gold |
3767.38 |
2.23% |
11.02% |
13.21% |
43.55% |
Copper |
471.55 |
3.21% |
5.74% |
-6.92% |
17.11% |
Currencies ($USD) |
|
|
|
|
|
US Dollar Index |
98.14 |
0.51% |
-0.08% |
1.02% |
-9.54% |
Loonie |
1.3938 |
-1.10% |
-0.71% |
-2.11% |
3.20% |
Euro |
0.8544 |
-0.36% |
0.53% |
0.04% |
13.05% |
Yen |
149.51 |
-1.04% |
-1.41% |
-3.40% |
5.14% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 26, 2025
Central Bank Interest Rates
Central Bank |
Current Rate |
December 2025 |
Bank of Canada |
2.50% |
2.35% |
U.S. Federal Reserve |
4.25% |
3.69% |
European Central Bank |
2.00% |
1.90% |
Bank of England |
4.00% |
3.91% |
Bank of Japan |
0.50% |
0.67% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 26, 2025
*Expected rates are based on bond futures pricing
Macro developments
Canada – Stagnant Canadian GDP
In August, Canada’s real GDP remained unchanged compared to the previous month. Growth in wholesale and retail trade was countered by declines in mining, manufacturing and transportation sectors. July saw a GDP increase of 0.2%, with mining and quarrying leading the growth.
U.S. – Decline in U.S. Composite PMI, PCE Price Index Increase
The S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI dropped to 53.6 in September, indicating a slowdown in growth but the strongest quarterly expansion since late 2024. Service-sector activity weakened and manufacturing output growth eased. Input costs surged due to tariffs, while business confidence rose to a four-month high.
In August, the U.S. PCE price index rose by 0.3%, matching market expectations. Prices for goods and services increased, while core PCE inflation held steady at 2.9%. Annual headline inflation reached 2.7%, the highest in six months, aligning with forecasts.
International – U.K. Composite PMI Decline, Eurozone PMI Improvement, Japan's Composite PMI Drops, Inflation in Tokyo's Ku-area, PBOC Maintains Low Lending Rates
The U.K. S&P Global Composite PMI fell to 51 in September, reflecting the slowest growth in private sector activity since May. Service providers slowed and manufacturing faced deeper contractions. Despite rising costs due to wage pressures, firms remained cautiously optimistic about future growth.
The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI rose to 51.2 in September, marking the fastest expansion in 16 months. Growth was driven by the services sector, offsetting a contraction in manufacturing. New orders remained unchanged and input cost inflation eased.
Japan's S&P Global Composite PMI decreased to 51.1 in September 2025, the lowest since May. While services grew, manufacturing declined. Input prices rose sharply, but output price inflation accelerated slightly, indicating subdued overall sentiment.
Core consumer prices in Tokyo's Ku-area rose 2.5% year-on-year in September 2025, matching August’s rate and missing expectations for a higher increase. Inflation remains above the Bank of Japan’s target, raising speculation for future rate hikes despite concerns over U.S. tariffs.
The People's Bank of China kept key lending rates at record lows for the fourth consecutive month in September 2025. This decision follows signs of easing trade tensions with the U.S. amidst weakening domestic economic momentum and low retail sales growth.
Quick look ahead
DATE |
COUNTRY / REGION |
EVENT |
|
SURVEY |
PRIOR |
29-Sep-25 |
Japan |
Retail Sales YoY |
Aug |
1.0 |
0.3 |
29-Sep-25 |
Japan |
Retail Sales MoM |
Aug |
1.2 |
(1.6) |
29-Sep-25 |
China |
Manufacturing PMI |
Sep |
49.6 |
49.4 |
29-Sep-25 |
China |
Non-manufacturing PMI |
Sep |
50.3 |
50.3 |
29-Sep-25 |
China |
Composite PMI |
Sep |
|
50.5 |
01-Oct-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI Estimate YoY |
Sep P |
2.3 |
2.0 |
01-Oct-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI MoM |
Sep P |
0.1 |
0.1 |
01-Oct-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI Core YoY |
Sep P |
2.3 |
2.3 |
01-Oct-25 |
Canada |
S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI |
Sep |
|
48.3 |
01-Oct-25 |
United States |
ISM Manufacturing |
Sep |
49.2 |
48.7 |
02-Oct-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
Unemployment Rate |
Aug |
6.2 |
6.2 |
02-Oct-25 |
Japan |
Jobless Rate |
Aug |
2.4 |
2.3 |
03-Oct-25 |
United States |
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls |
Sep |
50.0 |
22.0 |
03-Oct-25 |
United States |
Change in Private Payrolls |
Sep |
50.0 |
38.0 |
03-Oct-25 |
United States |
Change in Manufact. Payrolls |
Sep |
(10.0) |
(12.0) |
03-Oct-25 |
United States |
Unemployment Rate |
Sep |
4.3 |
4.3 |
03-Oct-25 |
United States |
Average Hourly Earnings MoM |
Sep |
0.3 |
0.3 |
03-Oct-25 |
United States |
Average Hourly Earnings YoY |
Sep |
3.6 |
3.7 |
03-Oct-25 |
United States |
ISM Services Index |
Sep |
52.0 |
52.0 |
P = Preliminary
The Asset Allocation Team at NEI Investments
Judith Chan, CFA – Vice President, Head of Asset Allocation
Mateo Marks, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Adam Ludwick, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Anthony Rago, B.A.Sc. – Senior Asset Allocation Analyst
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This material is for informational and educational purposes and it is not intended to provide specific advice including, without limitation, investment, financial, tax or similar matters. This document is published by AFI and unless indicated otherwise, all views expressed in this document are those of AFI. The views expressed herein are subject to change without notice as markets change over time.