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Weekly Market Pulse - Week ending September 19, 2025

Market developments

Equities: Global equity markets experienced a mixed performance during the week. In the U.S., stronger-than-expected economic data, such as revised Q2 GDP figures and lower jobless claims, dampened hopes for near-term Federal Reserve easing, leading to a decline in major indices. Asian markets showed a mixed tone with Japan and China climbing higher, while India dropped lower to end the week.

Fixed Income: U.S. Treasury yields generally rose during the week, influenced by the stronger economic data. The U.S. Federal Reserve had delivered a 25 basis point rate cut the previous week, which initially steepened the Treasury curve. However, subsequent data releases led to a rise in yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing. Corporate credit markets showed resilience, with investment-grade spreads hitting multi-decade low.

Commodities: The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index (BCOM) had its strongest monthly close in three years, driven by strength in metals and energy. Industrial and precious metals prices were buoyed by supply disruptions, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical tension.

Performance (price return)

SECURITY

PRICE

WEEK

1 MONTH

3 MONTH

YTD

Equities ($Local)

 

 

 

 

 

S&P/TSX Composite

29,761.28

-0.02%

5.02%

11.25%

20.35%

S&P 500

6,643.70

-0.31%

2.75%

8.19%

12.96%

NASDAQ

22,484.07

-0.65%

4.36%

11.48%

16.43%

DAX

23,739.47

0.42%

-1.71%

0.38%

19.24%

NIKKEI 225

45,354.99

0.69%

6.98%

14.58%

13.69%

Shanghai Composite

3,828.11

0.21%

-1.04%

11.01%

14.21%

Fixed Income (Performance in %)

 

 

 

 

 

Canada Aggregate Bond

240.82

-0.15%

2.00%

1.51%

2.32%

US Aggregate Bond

2318.61

-0.26%

1.00%

1.96%

5.92%

Europe Aggregate Bond

245.64

0.00%

0.15%

-0.13%

0.77%

US High Yield Bond

28.73

-0.25%

0.85%

2.72%

7.07%

Commodities ($USD)

 

 

 

 

 

Oil

65.32

4.21%

3.27%

0.12%

-8.92%

Gold

3767.38

2.23%

11.02%

13.21%

43.55%

Copper

471.55

3.21%

5.74%

-6.92%

17.11%

Currencies ($USD)

 

 

 

 

 

US Dollar Index

98.14

0.51%

-0.08%

1.02%

-9.54%

Loonie

1.3938

-1.10%

-0.71%

-2.11%

3.20%

Euro

0.8544

-0.36%

0.53%

0.04%

13.05%

Yen

149.51

-1.04%

-1.41%

-3.40%

5.14%

Source: Bloomberg, as of September 26, 2025

Central Bank Interest Rates

Central Bank

Current Rate

December 2025
Expected Rate*

Bank of Canada

2.50%

2.35%

U.S. Federal Reserve

4.25%

3.69%

European Central Bank

2.00%

1.90%

Bank of England

4.00%

3.91%

Bank of Japan

0.50%

0.67%

Source: Bloomberg, as of September 26, 2025

*Expected rates are based on bond futures pricing

 

Macro developments

Canada – Stagnant Canadian GDP

In August, Canada’s real GDP remained unchanged compared to the previous month. Growth in wholesale and retail trade was countered by declines in mining, manufacturing and transportation sectors. July saw a GDP increase of 0.2%, with mining and quarrying leading the growth.

U.S. – Decline in U.S. Composite PMI, PCE Price Index Increase

The S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI dropped to 53.6 in September, indicating a slowdown in growth but the strongest quarterly expansion since late 2024. Service-sector activity weakened and manufacturing output growth eased. Input costs surged due to tariffs, while business confidence rose to a four-month high.

In August, the U.S. PCE price index rose by 0.3%, matching market expectations. Prices for goods and services increased, while core PCE inflation held steady at 2.9%. Annual headline inflation reached 2.7%, the highest in six months, aligning with forecasts.

International – U.K. Composite PMI Decline, Eurozone PMI Improvement, Japan's Composite PMI Drops, Inflation in Tokyo's Ku-area, PBOC Maintains Low Lending Rates

The U.K. S&P Global Composite PMI fell to 51 in September, reflecting the slowest growth in private sector activity since May. Service providers slowed and manufacturing faced deeper contractions. Despite rising costs due to wage pressures, firms remained cautiously optimistic about future growth.

The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI rose to 51.2 in September, marking the fastest expansion in 16 months. Growth was driven by the services sector, offsetting a contraction in manufacturing. New orders remained unchanged and input cost inflation eased.

Japan's S&P Global Composite PMI decreased to 51.1 in September 2025, the lowest since May. While services grew, manufacturing declined. Input prices rose sharply, but output price inflation accelerated slightly, indicating subdued overall sentiment.

Core consumer prices in Tokyo's Ku-area rose 2.5% year-on-year in September 2025, matching August’s rate and missing expectations for a higher increase. Inflation remains above the Bank of Japan’s target, raising speculation for future rate hikes despite concerns over U.S. tariffs.

The People's Bank of China kept key lending rates at record lows for the fourth consecutive month in September 2025. This decision follows signs of easing trade tensions with the U.S. amidst weakening domestic economic momentum and low retail sales growth.

Quick look ahead

DATE

COUNTRY / REGION

EVENT

 

SURVEY

PRIOR

29-Sep-25

Japan

Retail Sales YoY

Aug

1.0

0.3

29-Sep-25

Japan

Retail Sales MoM

Aug

1.2

(1.6)

29-Sep-25

China

Manufacturing PMI

Sep

49.6

49.4

29-Sep-25

China

Non-manufacturing PMI

Sep

50.3

50.3

29-Sep-25

China

Composite PMI

Sep

 

50.5

01-Oct-25

Eurozone Aggregate

CPI Estimate YoY

Sep P

2.3

2.0

01-Oct-25

Eurozone Aggregate

CPI MoM

Sep P

0.1

0.1

01-Oct-25

Eurozone Aggregate

CPI Core YoY

Sep P

2.3

2.3

01-Oct-25

Canada

S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI

Sep

 

48.3

01-Oct-25

United States

ISM Manufacturing

Sep

49.2

48.7

02-Oct-25

Eurozone Aggregate

Unemployment Rate

Aug

6.2

6.2

02-Oct-25

Japan

Jobless Rate

Aug

2.4

2.3

03-Oct-25

United States

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Sep

50.0

22.0

03-Oct-25

United States

Change in Private Payrolls

Sep

50.0

38.0

03-Oct-25

United States

Change in Manufact. Payrolls

Sep

(10.0)

(12.0)

03-Oct-25

United States

Unemployment Rate

Sep

4.3

4.3

03-Oct-25

United States

Average Hourly Earnings MoM

Sep

0.3

0.3

03-Oct-25

United States

Average Hourly Earnings YoY

Sep

3.6

3.7

03-Oct-25

United States

ISM Services Index

Sep

52.0

52.0

P = Preliminary

 

The Asset Allocation Team at NEI Investments

Judith Chan, CFA – Vice President, Head of Asset Allocation

Mateo Marks, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation

Adam Ludwick, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation

Anthony Rago, B.A.Sc. – Senior Asset Allocation Analyst

 

Aviso Wealth Inc. (“Aviso”) is the parent company of Aviso Financial Inc. (“AFI”) and Northwest & Ethical Investments L.P. (“NEI”). Aviso and Aviso Wealth are registered trademarks owned by Aviso Wealth Inc.

NEI Investments is a registered trademark of NEI. Any use by AFI or NEI of an Aviso trade name or trademark is made with the consent and/or license of Aviso Wealth Inc. Aviso is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Aviso Wealth LP, which in turn is owned 50% by Desjardins Financial Holding Inc. and 50% by a limited partnership owned by the five Provincial Credit Union Centrals and The CUMIS Group Limited. Mutual funds and other securities are offered by Aviso Wealth, a division of Aviso Financial Inc.

This material is for informational and educational purposes and it is not intended to provide specific advice including, without limitation, investment, financial, tax or similar matters. This document is published by AFI and unless indicated otherwise, all views expressed in this document are those of AFI. The views expressed herein are subject to change without notice as markets change over time.

Aviso Wealth Inc. ('Aviso') is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aviso Wealth LP, which in turn is owned 50% by Desjardins Financial Holding Inc. and 50% by a limited partnership owned by the five Provincial Credit Union Centrals and The CUMIS Group Limited. The following entities are subsidiaries of Aviso: Aviso Financial Inc. (including divisions Aviso Wealth, Qtrade Direct Investing, Qtrade Guided Portfolios, Aviso Correspondent Partners), Aviso Insurance Inc., Credential Insurance Services Inc. and Northwest & Ethical Investments L.P.  Mutual funds and other securities are offered through Aviso Wealth, a division of Aviso Financial Inc. Aviso and Aviso Wealth are registered trademarks of Aviso Wealth Inc. NEI Investments is a registered trademark of Northwest & Ethical Investments L.P.

This material is for informational and educational purposes and it is not intended to provide specific advice including, without limitation, investment, financial, tax or similar matters. This document is published Aviso Wealth and unless indicated otherwise, all views expressed in this document are those of Aviso Wealth. The views expressed herein are subject to change without notice as markets change over time.