Weekly Market Pulse - Week ending August 14, 2026
Market developments
Equities: Global equities posted a broadly positive week, with the MSCI All Country World Index hitting a record high on Thursday, driven largely by renewed enthusiasm for the artificial intelligence trade and cooling US inflation data that reduced the probability of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. Asian markets were a standout, with South Korea's Kospi entering a technical bull market on the back of strong AI-related semiconductor names including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
Fixed Income: Government bond markets were shaped by two competing forces this week: a mid-week rally driven by benign US inflation data, followed by a Friday selloff as long-end yields reasserted themselves globally. The U.S. also sold $25 billion of 30-year bonds at the highest yield since 2001, reflecting investor demand for term premium even as the front end rallied.
Commodities: Energy markets remained volatile, dominated by the ongoing Iran conflict and disruptions to Strait of Hormuz flows. The IEA warned mid-week of a supply shortfall of 1.8 million barrels per day this quarter, more than double earlier projections, as renewed hostilities and maritime disruptions derailed a Middle East production recovery.
Performance (price return)
SECURITY |
PRICE |
WEEK |
1 MONTH |
3 MONTH |
YTD |
Equities ($Local) |
|
|
|
|
|
S&P/TSX Composite |
36,730.27 |
0.96% |
3.99% |
7.18% |
15.83% |
S&P 500 |
7,785.76 |
0.36% |
3.21% |
3.79% |
13.74% |
NASDAQ |
26,729.16 |
0.14% |
2.38% |
0.35% |
15.00% |
DAX |
26,440.31 |
0.46% |
5.14% |
8.11% |
7.96% |
NIKKEI 225 |
68,713.80 |
4.74% |
1.43% |
9.67% |
36.50% |
Shanghai Composite |
3,927.18 |
-0.33% |
-1.01% |
-6.00% |
-1.05% |
Fixed Income |
|
|
|
|
|
Canada Aggregate Bond |
242.89 |
0.15% |
-0.17% |
0.33% |
0.81% |
US Aggregate Bond |
2349.73 |
0.13% |
0.09% |
0.12% |
0.04% |
Europe Aggregate Bond |
246.65 |
-0.36% |
-0.27% |
-0.02% |
-0.06% |
US High Yield Bond |
29.91 |
0.19% |
0.62% |
1.39% |
2.64% |
Commodities |
|
|
|
|
|
Oil |
82.43 |
5.44% |
3.89% |
-18.52% |
43.56% |
Gold |
4373.46 |
0.73% |
7.91% |
-5.99% |
1.25% |
Copper |
660.40 |
0.20% |
4.33% |
0.56% |
16.23% |
Currencies |
|
|
|
|
|
US Dollar Index |
99.65 |
0.11% |
-1.26% |
0.84% |
1.35% |
Bitcoin (CAD) |
87,315.85 |
-3.52% |
-3.84% |
-21.81% |
-27.22% |
Loonie |
1.3875 |
0.46% |
1.33% |
-1.12% |
-1.09% |
Euro |
0.8644 |
0.08% |
1.31% |
-0.86% |
-1.50% |
Yen |
159.35 |
-1.00% |
1.82% |
-0.61% |
-1.66% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of August 14, 2026
Central Bank Interest Rates
Central Bank |
Current Rate |
December 2026 |
Bank of Canada |
2.25% |
2.44% |
U.S. Federal Reserve |
3.75% |
3.86% |
European Central Bank |
2.25% |
2.59% |
Bank of England |
3.75% |
4.00% |
Bank of Japan |
1.00% |
1.38% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of August 14, 2026
*Expected rates are based on bond futures pricing
Macro developments
Canada – No Notable Releases
No notable releases this week.
U.S. – Inflation Pressures Ease While Consumer Spending Remains Resilient
U.S. inflation continued to moderate in July, with headline CPI slowing to 3.4% year-over-year from 3.5% and core CPI easing to 2.5% from 2.6%. While shelter remained the primary contributor to monthly price gains, falling energy prices helped cool overall inflation, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures are gradually moving closer to the Federal Reserve's target.
Producer price data also pointed to easing pipeline inflation. Headline PPI slowed to 4.9% year-over-year from 5.5%, while core PPI excluding food and energy decelerated to 4.1% from 4.7%, suggesting that earlier energy and commodity cost pressures are beginning to fade and may lessen future pass-through to consumer prices.
Retail sales rose 0.1% in July while sales excluding autos increased 0.2%, indicating that consumer spending remains positive despite elevated borrowing costs and softer inflation. The data suggest households continue to support economic growth, although spending momentum has moderated compared with earlier in the year.
International – Mixed Global Growth Signals as Inflation Trends Diverge Across Regions
China inflation remained subdued in July, with CPI rising just 0.5% year-over-year while producer price inflation slowed to 3.5% from 4.1%. Softer gasoline prices and lingering weakness in food prices weighed on consumer inflation, while producer prices were pressured by lower energy and commodity costs despite continued strength in AI-related manufacturing sectors.
Japan producer price inflation eased slightly to 7.2% year-over-year in July, down from 7.3% and below expectations. Wholesale price pressures remain elevated due to strong demand for metals and AI-related inputs, but slowing momentum suggests cost inflation may be nearing a peak, although the data continue to support expectations for further Bank of Japan policy tightening.
United Kingdom GDP grew 0.4% quarter-over-quarter in the second quarter, slowing from 0.6% in the prior quarter, while annual growth accelerated to 1.2%. Services activity remained the primary driver of expansion and stronger business investment provided a positive surprise, although stagnant industrial output highlights an uneven growth backdrop.
Quick look ahead
DATE |
COUNTRY / REGION |
EVENT |
|
SURVEY |
PRIOR |
16-Aug-26 |
Japan |
GDP Annualized SA QoQ |
2Q P |
2.00 |
1.8 |
16-Aug-26 |
Japan |
GDP SA QoQ |
2Q P |
0.50 |
0.5 |
16-Aug-26 |
Japan |
GDP Nominal SA QoQ |
2Q P |
1.20 |
0.6 |
16-Aug-26 |
Japan |
GDP Deflator YoY |
2Q P |
2.30 |
3.2 |
16-Aug-26 |
China |
Retail Sales YoY |
Jul |
1.50 |
1.0 |
16-Aug-26 |
China |
Retail Sales YTD YoY |
Jul |
1.40 |
1.3 |
17-Aug-26 |
Canada |
CPI NSA MoM |
Jul |
0.40 |
-0.4 |
17-Aug-26 |
Canada |
CPI YoY |
Jul |
2.90 |
2.8 |
18-Aug-26 |
United Kingdom |
ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths |
Jun |
4.80 |
4.9 |
19-Aug-26 |
United Kingdom |
CPI MoM |
Jul |
0.33 |
0.1 |
19-Aug-26 |
United Kingdom |
CPI YoY |
Jul |
2.90 |
2.6 |
19-Aug-26 |
United Kingdom |
CPI Core YoY |
Jul |
2.50 |
2.6 |
19-Aug-26 |
China |
1-Year Loan Prime Rate |
|
3.00 |
3.0 |
19-Aug-26 |
China |
5-Year Loan Prime Rate |
|
3.50 |
3.5 |
20-Aug-26 |
Japan |
Natl CPI YoY |
Jul |
1.90 |
1.6 |
20-Aug-26 |
Japan |
Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY |
Jul |
1.80 |
1.6 |
20-Aug-26 |
Japan |
S&P Global Japan PMI Composite |
Aug P |
|
52.7 |
20-Aug-26 |
Japan |
S&P Global Japan PMI Mfg |
Aug P |
|
54.5 |
20-Aug-26 |
Japan |
S&P Global Japan PMI Services |
Aug P |
|
51.2 |
21-Aug-26 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI |
Aug P |
51.90 |
51.9 |
21-Aug-26 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI |
Aug P |
51.55 |
51.7 |
21-Aug-26 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
S&P Global Eurozone Composite PMI |
Aug P |
51.75 |
52.0 |
21-Aug-26 |
United Kingdom |
S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI |
Aug P |
51.50 |
51.9 |
21-Aug-26 |
United Kingdom |
S&P Global UK Services PMI |
Aug P |
51.90 |
52.1 |
21-Aug-26 |
United Kingdom |
S&P Global UK Composite PMI |
Aug P |
51.50 |
52.2 |
21-Aug-26 |
Canada |
Retail Sales MoM |
Jun |
0.40 |
1.0 |
21-Aug-26 |
Canada |
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM |
Jun |
|
1.2 |
21-Aug-26 |
United States |
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI |
Aug P |
53.90 |
53.9 |
21-Aug-26 |
United States |
S&P Global US Services PMI |
Aug P |
53.95 |
54.6 |
21-Aug-26 |
United States |
S&P Global US Composite PMI |
Aug P |
53.70 |
54.5 |
P = Preliminary
The Asset Allocation Team at NEI Investments
Judith Chan, CFA – Vice President, Head of Asset Allocation
Mateo Marks, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Adam Ludwick, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Anthony Rago, B.A.Sc. – Senior Asset Allocation Analyst