Weekly Market Pulse - Week ending June 27, 2025
Market developments
Equities: Global equity markets experienced a volatile week, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically involving Iran and fluctuating sentiments regarding U.S.-China trade relations. Early-week gains faded as threats of escalation and weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales weighed on investor confidence. However, positive news emerged later in the week with reports of progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, including pledges from Beijing regarding rare earth materials and hints of broader trade deals, which helped lift stock index futures.
Fixed Income: The fixed income market saw modest declines in Treasury yields following the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady and signal potential future cuts. Investment-grade corporates gained, benefiting from lower rates, while high-yield corporates also advanced. Overall, fixed income yields presented attractive income opportunities, although downside economic risks remained material.
Commodities: Commodity markets faced significant volatility this week, particularly in the oil sector, which experienced a sharp decline of approximately 13%. Gold prices retreated as risk appetite improved, leading investors to shift towards equities
Performance (price return)
SECURITY |
PRICE |
WEEK |
1 MONTH |
3 MONTH |
YTD |
Equities ($Local) |
|
|
|
|
|
S&P/TSX Composite |
26,692.32 |
0.73% |
1.61% |
6.09% |
7.94% |
S&P 500 |
6,173.07 |
3.44% |
4.25% |
8.43% |
4.96% |
NASDAQ |
20,273.46 |
4.25% |
5.60% |
13.87% |
4.99% |
DAX |
24,033.22 |
2.92% |
-0.80% |
5.97% |
20.71% |
NIKKEI 225 |
40,150.79 |
4.55% |
6.43% |
6.22% |
0.64% |
Shanghai Composite |
3,424.23 |
1.91% |
2.50% |
1.50% |
2.16% |
Fixed Income (Performance in %) |
|
|
|
|
|
Canada Aggregate Bond |
237.25 |
0.10% |
0.05% |
-0.26% |
0.80% |
US Aggregate Bond |
2274.02 |
0.91% |
1.77% |
1.87% |
3.88% |
Europe Aggregate Bond |
245.64 |
-0.12% |
0.04% |
1.87% |
0.77% |
US High Yield Bond |
27.97 |
0.74% |
1.73% |
2.87% |
4.23% |
Commodities ($USD) |
|
|
|
|
|
Oil |
65.13 |
-13.08% |
6.96% |
-6.85% |
-9.19% |
Gold |
3275.35 |
-2.76% |
-0.77% |
7.13% |
24.80% |
Copper |
505.85 |
4.66% |
7.40% |
-0.77% |
25.63% |
Currencies ($USD) |
|
|
|
|
|
US Dollar Index |
97.34 |
-1.39% |
-2.20% |
-6.71% |
-10.28% |
Loonie |
1.3701 |
0.25% |
0.80% |
4.41% |
4.99% |
Euro |
0.8536 |
1.68% |
3.41% |
8.46% |
13.16% |
Yen |
144.66 |
0.99% |
-0.23% |
4.42% |
8.67% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of June 27, 2025
Central Bank Interest Rates
Central Bank |
Current Rate |
December 2025 |
Bank of Canada |
2.75% |
2.40% |
U.S. Federal Reserve |
4.50% |
3.68% |
European Central Bank |
2.00% |
1.69% |
Bank of England |
4.25% |
3.68% |
Bank of Japan |
0.50% |
0.62% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of June 27, 2025
*Expected rates are based on bond futures pricing
Macro developments
Canada – Canada’s Steady Inflation, GDP Contraction
In May, Canada's inflation rate remained at 1.7%, consistent with market expectations and below the Bank of Canada's 2% target for the second month. Price growth slowed in shelter, food and core rates, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.6%, recovering from a previous decline.
Canada experienced a disappointing 0.1% contraction in GDP for April and May, suggesting stagnant growth. Manufacturing fell significantly due to tariff uncertainties, while the services sector saw gains, particularly in arts and entertainment, linked to increased NHL playoff attendance.
U.S. – Private Sector Growth Eases, PCE Inflation Steady
The S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI dipped to 52.8 in June, indicating slight growth cooling. Service output eased and exports fell due to rising tariffs, while job creation continued. Price pressures increased, although input costs rose more slowly due to competitive pressures.
In May, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.1%, aligning with expectations. Core PCE inflation increased to 2.7%, while food prices rose and energy costs fell. Headline inflation matched forecasts at 2.3%.
International – Eurozone Growth Stagnates, Japan's Composite PMI Rises, Japan's Stable Unemployment Rate
The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI held at 50.2 in June, slightly below expectations, indicating muted growth. Service sector activity stagnated, while manufacturing remained unchanged. New orders fell and input cost inflation decreased, though business confidence improved.
Japan's Composite PMI rose to 51.4 in June, marking growth in both manufacturing and services. Despite this, demand remained weak, affected by export challenges and tariff uncertainties. Input price inflation eased, but business confidence stayed cautious.
Japan's unemployment rate remained at 2.5% in May 2025, with a slight drop in unemployed individuals. Employment reached a record high and the labour force participation rate increased. However, the jobs-to-applicants ratio fell below market expectations, indicating a tighter job market.
Quick look ahead
DATE |
COUNTRY / REGION |
EVENT |
|
SURVEY |
PRIOR |
30-Jun-25 |
China |
Caixin China PMI Mfg |
Jun |
49.3 |
48.3 |
01-Jul-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI Estimate YoY |
Jun P |
2.0 |
|
01-Jul-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI MoM |
Jun P |
0.3 |
|
01-Jul-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI Core YoY |
Jun P |
2.3 |
2.3 |
01-Jul-25 |
United States |
ISM Manufacturing |
Jun |
48.8 |
48.5 |
02-Jul-25 |
Canada |
S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI |
Jun |
|
46.1 |
02-Jul-25 |
Japan |
Japan Buying Foreign Bonds |
|
|
615.5 |
02-Jul-25 |
Japan |
Japan Buying Foreign Stocks |
|
|
(88.2) |
02-Jul-25 |
Japan |
Foreign Buying Japan Bonds |
|
|
(368.8) |
02-Jul-25 |
Japan |
Foreign Buying Japan Stocks |
|
|
(524.3) |
02-Jul-25 |
China |
Caixin China PMI Composite |
Jun |
|
49.6 |
02-Jul-25 |
China |
Caixin China PMI Services |
Jun |
51.0 |
51.1 |
03-Jul-25 |
United States |
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls |
Jun |
120.0 |
139.0 |
03-Jul-25 |
United States |
Unemployment Rate |
Jun |
4.3 |
4.2 |
04-Jul-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
PPI MoM |
May |
(0.7) |
(2.2) |
04-Jul-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
PPI YoY |
May |
0.3 |
0.7 |
P = Preliminary
The Asset Allocation Team at NEI Investments
Judith Chan, CFA – Vice President, Head of Multi-Asset Portfolios
Mateo Marks, CFA – Senior Multi Asset Portfolio Analyst
Adam Ludwick, CFA – Senior Multi Asset Portfolio Analyst
Anthony Rago, B.A.Sc. – Senior Multi Asset Portfolio Analyst
Aviso Wealth Inc. (“Aviso”) is the parent company of Aviso Financial Inc. (“AFI”) and Northwest & Ethical Investments L.P. (“NEI”). Aviso and Aviso Wealth are registered trademarks owned by Aviso Wealth Inc.
NEI Investments is a registered trademark of NEI. Any use by AFI or NEI of an Aviso trade name or trademark is made with the consent and/or license of Aviso Wealth Inc. Aviso is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Aviso Wealth LP, which in turn is owned 50% by Desjardins Financial Holding Inc. and 50% by a limited partnership owned by the five Provincial Credit Union Centrals and The CUMIS Group Limited. Mutual funds and other securities are offered by Aviso Wealth, a division of Aviso Financial Inc.
This material is for informational and educational purposes and it is not intended to provide specific advice including, without limitation, investment, financial, tax or similar matters. This document is published by AFI and unless indicated otherwise, all views expressed in this document are those of AFI. The views expressed herein are subject to change without notice as markets change over time.