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Weekly Market Pulse - Week ending June 27, 2025

Market developments

Equities: Global equity markets experienced a volatile week, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically involving Iran and fluctuating sentiments regarding U.S.-China trade relations. Early-week gains faded as threats of escalation and weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales weighed on investor confidence. However, positive news emerged later in the week with reports of progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, including pledges from Beijing regarding rare earth materials and hints of broader trade deals, which helped lift stock index futures.

Fixed Income: The fixed income market saw modest declines in Treasury yields following the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady and signal potential future cuts. Investment-grade corporates gained, benefiting from lower rates, while high-yield corporates also advanced. Overall, fixed income yields presented attractive income opportunities, although downside economic risks remained material.

Commodities: Commodity markets faced significant volatility this week, particularly in the oil sector, which experienced a sharp decline of approximately 13%. Gold prices retreated as risk appetite improved, leading investors to shift towards equities

Performance (price return)

SECURITY

PRICE

WEEK

1 MONTH

3 MONTH

YTD

Equities ($Local)

 

 

 

 

 

S&P/TSX Composite

26,692.32

0.73%

1.61%

6.09%

7.94%

S&P 500

6,173.07

3.44%

4.25%

8.43%

4.96%

NASDAQ

20,273.46

4.25%

5.60%

13.87%

4.99%

DAX

24,033.22

2.92%

-0.80%

5.97%

20.71%

NIKKEI 225

40,150.79

4.55%

6.43%

6.22%

0.64%

Shanghai Composite

3,424.23

1.91%

2.50%

1.50%

2.16%

Fixed Income (Performance in %)

 

 

 

 

 

Canada Aggregate Bond

237.25

0.10%

0.05%

-0.26%

0.80%

US Aggregate Bond

2274.02

0.91%

1.77%

1.87%

3.88%

Europe Aggregate Bond

245.64

-0.12%

0.04%

1.87%

0.77%

US High Yield Bond

27.97

0.74%

1.73%

2.87%

4.23%

Commodities ($USD)

 

 

 

 

 

Oil

65.13

-13.08%

6.96%

-6.85%

-9.19%

Gold

3275.35

-2.76%

-0.77%

7.13%

24.80%

Copper

505.85

4.66%

7.40%

-0.77%

25.63%

Currencies ($USD)

 

 

 

 

 

US Dollar Index

97.34

-1.39%

-2.20%

-6.71%

-10.28%

Loonie

1.3701

0.25%

0.80%

4.41%

4.99%

Euro

0.8536

1.68%

3.41%

8.46%

13.16%

Yen

144.66

0.99%

-0.23%

4.42%

8.67%

Source: Bloomberg, as of June 27, 2025

Central Bank Interest Rates

Central Bank

Current Rate

December 2025
Expected Rate*

Bank of Canada

2.75%

2.40%

U.S. Federal Reserve

4.50%

3.68%

European Central Bank

2.00%

1.69%

Bank of England

4.25%

3.68%

Bank of Japan

0.50%

0.62%

Source: Bloomberg, as of June 27, 2025

*Expected rates are based on bond futures pricing

 

Macro developments

Canada – Canada’s Steady Inflation, GDP Contraction

In May, Canada's inflation rate remained at 1.7%, consistent with market expectations and below the Bank of Canada's 2% target for the second month. Price growth slowed in shelter, food and core rates, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.6%, recovering from a previous decline.

Canada experienced a disappointing 0.1% contraction in GDP for April and May, suggesting stagnant growth. Manufacturing fell significantly due to tariff uncertainties, while the services sector saw gains, particularly in arts and entertainment, linked to increased NHL playoff attendance.

U.S. – Private Sector Growth Eases, PCE Inflation Steady

The S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI dipped to 52.8 in June, indicating slight growth cooling. Service output eased and exports fell due to rising tariffs, while job creation continued. Price pressures increased, although input costs rose more slowly due to competitive pressures.

In May, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.1%, aligning with expectations. Core PCE inflation increased to 2.7%, while food prices rose and energy costs fell. Headline inflation matched forecasts at 2.3%.

International – Eurozone Growth Stagnates, Japan's Composite PMI Rises, Japan's Stable Unemployment Rate

The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI held at 50.2 in June, slightly below expectations, indicating muted growth. Service sector activity stagnated, while manufacturing remained unchanged. New orders fell and input cost inflation decreased, though business confidence improved.

Japan's Composite PMI rose to 51.4 in June, marking growth in both manufacturing and services. Despite this, demand remained weak, affected by export challenges and tariff uncertainties. Input price inflation eased, but business confidence stayed cautious.

Japan's unemployment rate remained at 2.5% in May 2025, with a slight drop in unemployed individuals. Employment reached a record high and the labour force participation rate increased. However, the jobs-to-applicants ratio fell below market expectations, indicating a tighter job market.

 

Quick look ahead

DATE

COUNTRY / REGION

EVENT

 

SURVEY

PRIOR

30-Jun-25

China

Caixin China PMI Mfg

Jun

49.3

48.3

01-Jul-25

Eurozone Aggregate

CPI Estimate YoY

Jun P

2.0

 

01-Jul-25

Eurozone Aggregate

CPI MoM

Jun P

0.3

 

01-Jul-25

Eurozone Aggregate

CPI Core YoY

Jun P

2.3

2.3

01-Jul-25

United States

ISM Manufacturing

Jun

48.8

48.5

02-Jul-25

Canada

S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI

Jun

 

46.1

02-Jul-25

Japan

Japan Buying Foreign Bonds

 

 

615.5

02-Jul-25

Japan

Japan Buying Foreign Stocks

 

 

(88.2)

02-Jul-25

Japan

Foreign Buying Japan Bonds

 

 

(368.8)

02-Jul-25

Japan

Foreign Buying Japan Stocks

 

 

(524.3)

02-Jul-25

China

Caixin China PMI Composite

Jun

 

49.6

02-Jul-25

China

Caixin China PMI Services

Jun

51.0

51.1

03-Jul-25

United States

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Jun

120.0

139.0

03-Jul-25

United States

Unemployment Rate

Jun

4.3

4.2

04-Jul-25

Eurozone Aggregate

PPI MoM

May

(0.7)

(2.2)

04-Jul-25

Eurozone Aggregate

PPI YoY

May

0.3

0.7

P = Preliminary

 

The Asset Allocation Team at NEI Investments

Judith Chan, CFA – Vice President, Head of Multi-Asset Portfolios

Mateo Marks, CFA – Senior Multi Asset Portfolio Analyst

Adam Ludwick, CFA – Senior Multi Asset Portfolio Analyst

Anthony Rago, B.A.Sc. – Senior Multi Asset Portfolio Analyst

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This material is for informational and educational purposes and it is not intended to provide specific advice including, without limitation, investment, financial, tax or similar matters. This document is published by AFI and unless indicated otherwise, all views expressed in this document are those of AFI. The views expressed herein are subject to change without notice as markets change over time.

Aviso Wealth Inc. ('Aviso') is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aviso Wealth LP, which in turn is owned 50% by Desjardins Financial Holding Inc. and 50% by a limited partnership owned by the five Provincial Credit Union Centrals and The CUMIS Group Limited. The following entities are subsidiaries of Aviso: Aviso Financial Inc. (including divisions Aviso Wealth, Qtrade Direct Investing, Qtrade Guided Portfolios, Aviso Correspondent Partners), Aviso Insurance Inc., Credential Insurance Services Inc. and Northwest & Ethical Investments L.P.  Mutual funds and other securities are offered through Aviso Wealth, a division of Aviso Financial Inc. Aviso and Aviso Wealth are registered trademarks of Aviso Wealth Inc. NEI Investments is a registered trademark of Northwest & Ethical Investments L.P.

This material is for informational and educational purposes and it is not intended to provide specific advice including, without limitation, investment, financial, tax or similar matters. This document is published Aviso Wealth and unless indicated otherwise, all views expressed in this document are those of Aviso Wealth. The views expressed herein are subject to change without notice as markets change over time.