Weekly Market Pulse - Week ending March 13, 2026
Market developments
Equities: Global equities came under pressure as escalating tensions involving Iran pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel and revived concerns around stagflation. In the U.S., the S&P 500 declined 0.6% to 6,632.19 on Friday, marking its weakest close since November 21, while the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.5%, with notable weakness in names such as Adobe and Meta. Canadian equities also moved lower, with the S&P/TSX Composite falling 0.9% to $32,541.93, extending its losing streak to three sessions and bringing the cumulative decline to more than 700 points.
Fixed Income: Bond markets were shaped by competing inflation and growth signals over the week. In the U.S., the 10-year Treasury yield started the week lower on Monday but moved higher over the following days to finish at 4.3% on Friday as the rise in oil prices renewed inflation concerns. Long-end yields also moved higher, with the 30-year Treasury yield ending at 4.9%. In Canada, government bond yields eased on Friday, with the 10-year Government of Canada yield closing at 3.5% and the 30-year yield at 3.9%.
Commodities: Markets were dominated by the sharp rise in energy prices as the conflict involving Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose to $103.69 per barrel posting a weekly gain of about 11.87% and closing above $100 for the first time since August 2022. Gold was weaker, with spot prices near $5,019 per ounce on Friday, heading for a second straight weekly decline as a stronger U.S. dollar and reduced rate-cut expectations offset safe-haven demand.
Performance (price return)
SECURITY |
PRICE |
WEEK |
1 MONTH |
3 MONTH |
YTD |
Equities ($Local) |
|
|
|
|
|
S&P/TSX Composite |
32,541.93 |
-1.64% |
-1.61% |
3.22% |
2.62% |
S&P 500 |
6,632.19 |
-1.60% |
-2.98% |
-2.86% |
-3.12% |
NASDAQ |
22,105.36 |
-1.26% |
-1.96% |
-4.70% |
-4.89% |
DAX |
23,447.29 |
-0.61% |
-5.89% |
-3.06% |
-4.26% |
NIKKEI 225 |
53,819.61 |
-3.24% |
-5.48% |
5.87% |
6.91% |
Shanghai Composite |
4,095.45 |
-0.70% |
0.33% |
5.30% |
3.19% |
Fixed Income |
|
|
|
|
|
Canada Aggregate Bond |
240.36 |
-0.74% |
-1.79% |
0.20% |
-0.24% |
US Aggregate Bond |
2348.19 |
-0.79% |
-1.29% |
0.51% |
-0.03% |
Europe Aggregate Bond |
246.03 |
-0.71% |
-1.60% |
-0.02% |
-0.31% |
US High Yield Bond |
29.11 |
-0.39% |
-0.86% |
0.44% |
-0.13% |
Commodities |
|
|
|
|
|
Oil |
98.59 |
8.46% |
56.77% |
71.64% |
71.70% |
Gold |
5019.71 |
-2.94% |
-0.44% |
16.75% |
16.21% |
Copper |
566.00 |
-1.68% |
-2.46% |
7.13% |
-0.39% |
Currencies |
|
|
|
|
|
US Dollar Index |
100.48 |
1.51% |
3.68% |
2.11% |
2.19% |
Bitcoin (CAD) |
97,862.31 |
5.63% |
4.32% |
-21.17% |
-18.43% |
Loonie |
1.3728 |
-1.17% |
-0.81% |
0.32% |
-0.03% |
Euro |
0.8759 |
-1.74% |
-3.80% |
-2.75% |
-2.80% |
Yen |
159.68 |
-1.19% |
-4.37% |
-2.42% |
-1.86% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of March 13, 2026
Central Bank Interest Rates
Central Bank |
Current Rate |
June 2026 |
Bank of Canada |
2.25% |
2.30% |
U.S. Federal Reserve |
3.75% |
3.58% |
European Central Bank |
2.00% |
2.13% |
Bank of England |
3.75% |
3.79% |
Bank of Japan |
0.75% |
0.96% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of March 13, 2026
*Expected rates are based on bond futures pricing
Macro developments
Canada – Canadian Economy Shows Signs of Labour Market Weakness
Canada’s labour market weakened sharply in February, with employment falling 83.9k versus expectations for a 10.0k gain. The unemployment rate rose to 6.7%, above both the 6.6% consensus and January’s 6.5% reading.
U.S. – Economy Remains Resilient as Inflation Stays Contained
Headline inflation held at 2.4% in February, in line with expectations. Core inflation remained at 2.5% in February, matching forecasts and the prior month. While underlying price pressure has eased to its slowest pace in years, the data still supports the Fed’s cautious stance on further rate cuts.
U.S. fourth-quarter GDP growth was revised down to 0.7% annualized, well below the 1.4% forecast and prior estimate. The revision reinforces the slowdown in activity from the stronger pace seen earlier in 2025.
U.S. job openings rose to 6.946 million in January, above the 6.750 million consensus and 6.542 million prior reading. The report suggests labour demand remains reasonably resilient despite a broader cooling in hiring momentum.
International – Global Activity Signals Remain Mixed Across Regions
China’s CPI increased 1.3% year over year in February, topping the 0.9% forecast and accelerating from 0.2% previously. The stronger print suggests firmer inflation momentum after a subdued start to the year.
Japan’s final fourth-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 1.3% annualized, above the 1.0% forecast and 0.2% preliminary estimate. The revision was supported by stronger private consumption and capital spending.
UK GDP was flat in January, missing the 0.2% forecast and slowing from 0.1% in the prior month. The result points to softer near-term momentum after modest improvement late last year.
Quick look ahead
DATE |
COUNTRY / REGION |
EVENT |
|
SURVEY |
PRIOR |
15-Mar-26 |
China |
Retail Sales YTD YoY |
Feb |
2.50 |
|
16-Mar-26 |
Canada |
CPI NSA MoM |
Feb |
0.60 |
|
16-Mar-26 |
Canada |
CPI YoY |
Feb |
1.90 |
2.3 |
18-Mar-26 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI YoY |
Feb F |
1.90 |
1.9 |
18-Mar-26 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI MoM |
Feb F |
0.70 |
0.7 |
18-Mar-26 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI Core YoY |
Feb F |
2.40 |
2.4 |
18-Mar-26 |
United States |
PPI Final Demand YoY |
Feb |
|
2.9 |
18-Mar-26 |
United States |
PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY |
Feb |
|
3.6 |
18-Mar-26 |
Canada |
Bank of Canada Rate Decision |
|
2.25 |
2.25 |
18-Mar-26 |
United States |
FOMC Rate Decision |
|
3.75 |
3.75 |
19-Mar-26 |
Japan |
BOJ Target Rate |
|
0.75 |
0.75 |
19-Mar-26 |
United Kingdom |
ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths |
Jan |
5.25 |
5.20 |
19-Mar-26 |
United Kingdom |
Bank of England Bank Rate |
|
3.75 |
3.75 |
19-Mar-26 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
ECB Deposit Facility Rate |
|
2.00 |
2.00 |
19-Mar-26 |
China |
5-Year Loan Prime Rate |
|
3.50 |
3.50 |
19-Mar-26 |
China |
1-Year Loan Prime Rate |
|
3.00 |
3.00 |
20-Mar-26 |
Canada |
Retail Sales MoM |
Jan |
1.30 |
-0.4 |
20-Mar-26 |
Canada |
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM |
Jan |
1.40 |
0.1 |
F = Final
The Asset Allocation Team at NEI Investments
Judith Chan, CFA – Vice President, Head of Asset Allocation
Mateo Marks, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Adam Ludwick, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Anthony Rago, B.A.Sc. – Senior Asset Allocation Analyst
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This material is for informational and educational purposes and it is not intended to provide specific advice including, without limitation, investment, financial, tax or similar matters. This document is published by AFI and unless indicated otherwise, all views expressed in this document are those of AFI. The views expressed herein are subject to change without notice as markets change over time.