Weekly Market Pulse - Week ending September 25, 2026
Market developments
Equities: Global equity markets navigated a turbulent week dominated by rising bond yields and geopolitical uncertainty, ultimately closing with modest gains. In the U.S., the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were buffeted by competing forces. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose for the week, snapping a three-week losing streak, though it remained range-bound between its 100-day and 50-day moving averages. In Asia, a Meta-fueled AI rally early in the week cooled quickly, with South Korean chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix paring gains, though the Kospi extended its winning streak.
Fixed Income: It was a bruising week for global bond markets, with yields surging to multi-decade highs across maturities and geographies. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.228% intraday on Friday, its highest since June 2007, while the 30-year breached 5.5% for the first time in 22 years. The selloff was driven by a combination of strong economic data, persistent inflation concerns tied to elevated oil prices and a weak Treasury auction mid-week.
Commodities: Oil was the dominant commodity story of the week, with Brent crude oscillating sharply around geopolitical developments related to the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. Prices had been elevated—WTI traded near $94–$106 through much of the week, before falling sharply on Friday after the New York Times reported Iran had proposed a phased deal to reopen the Strait.
Performance (price return)
SECURITY |
PRICE |
WEEK |
1 MONTH |
3 MONTH |
YTD |
Equities ($Local) |
|
|
|
|
|
S&P/TSX Composite |
35,800.89 |
-0.02% |
-3.13% |
2.73% |
12.90% |
S&P 500 |
7,743.41 |
1.21% |
0.86% |
5.25% |
13.12% |
NASDAQ |
27,068.72 |
2.06% |
3.51% |
6.74% |
16.46% |
DAX |
25,408.64 |
0.41% |
-3.26% |
1.66% |
3.75% |
NIKKEI 225 |
66,364.20 |
2.07% |
0.77% |
-8.29% |
31.83% |
Shanghai Composite |
3,888.37 |
-0.60% |
-0.03% |
-5.63% |
-2.03% |
Fixed Income |
|
|
|
|
|
Canada Aggregate Bond |
238.89 |
-0.53% |
-1.73% |
-2.82% |
-0.85% |
US Aggregate Bond |
2290.79 |
-1.02% |
-2.77% |
-3.34% |
-2.47% |
Europe Aggregate Bond |
240.70 |
-0.43% |
-2.36% |
-3.73% |
-2.47% |
US High Yield Bond |
29.43 |
-0.75% |
-1.71% |
-0.81% |
0.97% |
Commodities |
|
|
|
|
|
Oil |
92.47 |
-7.81% |
12.28% |
28.57% |
61.04% |
Gold |
4290.69 |
-2.01% |
-7.87% |
6.56% |
-0.66% |
Copper |
669.55 |
1.22% |
-0.28% |
10.23% |
17.84% |
Currencies |
|
|
|
|
|
US Dollar Index |
101.00 |
0.77% |
2.10% |
-0.43% |
2.72% |
Bitcoin (CAD) |
118,725.47 |
4.95% |
10.04% |
39.92% |
-1.04% |
Loonie |
1.4144 |
-1.11% |
-2.16% |
0.41% |
-2.97% |
Euro |
0.8777 |
-0.80% |
-2.40% |
0.21% |
-3.00% |
Yen |
157.29 |
-0.26% |
1.21% |
2.86% |
-0.37% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 25, 2026
Central Bank Interest Rates
Central Bank |
Current Rate |
December 2026 |
Bank of Canada |
2.25% |
2.60% |
U.S. Federal Reserve |
4.00% |
4.23% |
European Central Bank |
2.50% |
2.78% |
Bank of England |
3.75% |
4.08% |
Bank of Japan |
1.25% |
1.45% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 25, 2026
*Expected rates are based on bond futures pricing
Macro developments
Canada – Retail Spending Pulls Back Broadly, though an August Rebound Is Indicated
Canadian retail sales fell 0.7% month over month to $73.7 billion in July, while sales excluding autos and gasoline also declined 0.7%. Weakness spanned eight of nine subsectors and inflation-adjusted volumes dropped 1.1%, signalling a meaningful retrenchment in goods consumption, although the preliminary estimate points to a 1.3% rebound in August.
U.S. – Business Activity Accelerates Sharply Alongside Intensifying Price Pressures
The U.S. flash composite PMI climbed to 58.4 in September, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 57.0 and services activity reaching 58.7. Growth was the strongest in more than five years and hiring accelerated, but higher energy costs, capacity constraints and supply-chain delays intensified inflation pressures, reinforcing a hawkish signal for interest rates.
International – Eurozone Momentum Strengthens as the U.K. and Japan Slow and China Maintains Policy Restraint
China held its one-year loan prime rate at 3.00% and the five-year rate at 3.50% on September 20, marking a 16th consecutive month without a change. The decision reflected limited room for broad monetary easing amid weak credit demand, pressure on bank margins and a wide interest-rate differential with the U.S.
Eurozone private-sector growth accelerated in September, with the flash composite PMI rising to 53.1, services reaching 53.0 and manufacturing holding at 52.7. Output expanded at its fastest pace since April 2023, supported by stronger new orders across manufacturing and services, although energy-related cost pressures strengthened.
U.K. business activity lost momentum, with the flash composite and services PMIs both easing to 51.7, while the manufacturing PMI improved to 52.0. Softer domestic demand constrained growth as energy, fuel and raw-material costs lifted inflation pressures, leaving the Bank of England facing a difficult mix of sluggish activity and elevated prices.
Japan’s September flash PMIs were released on September 24, one day later than the date shown in the supplied table. The composite PMI declined to 52.5, manufacturing eased to 54.1 and services fell to 51.6, indicating continued expansion at a four-month low as domestic demand softened, while strong export orders and faster hiring provided some offset.
Quick look ahead
DATE |
COUNTRY / REGION |
EVENT |
|
SURVEY |
PRIOR |
29-Sep-26 |
Canada |
GDP MoM |
Jul |
0.10 |
0.3 |
29-Sep-26 |
Canada |
GDP YoY |
Jul |
1.30 |
2.0 |
29-Sep-26 |
Japan |
Retail Sales YoY |
Aug |
3.15 |
4.0 |
29-Sep-26 |
Japan |
Retail Sales MoM |
Aug |
-1.00 |
2.4 |
29-Sep-26 |
China |
China PMI Composite |
Sep |
|
52.1 |
29-Sep-26 |
China |
China PMI Services |
Sep |
51.20 |
51.4 |
30-Sep-26 |
United States |
PCE Price Index MoM |
Aug |
0.40 |
0.2 |
30-Sep-26 |
United States |
PCE Price Index YoY |
Aug |
3.70 |
3.7 |
30-Sep-26 |
United States |
Core PCE Price Index MoM |
Aug |
0.30 |
0.2 |
30-Sep-26 |
United States |
Core PCE Price Index YoY |
Aug |
3.30 |
3.3 |
30-Sep-26 |
United States |
GDP Annualized QoQ |
2Q T |
1.50 |
1.5 |
01-Oct-26 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
Unemployment Rate |
Aug |
6.40 |
6.4 |
01-Oct-26 |
Canada |
S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI |
Sep |
|
53.0 |
01-Oct-26 |
United States |
ISM Manufacturing |
Sep |
54.95 |
54.6 |
01-Oct-26 |
United States |
ISM Prices Paid |
Sep |
72.00 |
71.1 |
01-Oct-26 |
Japan |
Tokyo CPI YoY |
Sep |
2.50 |
1.9 |
01-Oct-26 |
Japan |
Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY |
Sep |
2.40 |
1.8 |
01-Oct-26 |
Japan |
Jobless Rate |
Aug |
2.40 |
2.4 |
02-Oct-26 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI Estimate YoY |
Sep P |
3.64 |
3.2 |
02-Oct-26 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI YoY |
Sep P |
3.60 |
3.2 |
02-Oct-26 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI MoM |
Sep P |
0.50 |
0.4 |
02-Oct-26 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI Core YoY |
Sep P |
2.50 |
2.4 |
02-Oct-26 |
United States |
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls |
Sep |
100.00 |
162.0 |
02-Oct-26 |
United States |
Change in Private Payrolls |
Sep |
90.00 |
127.0 |
02-Oct-26 |
United States |
Change in Manufact. Payrolls |
Sep |
10.00 |
16.0 |
02-Oct-26 |
United States |
Average Hourly Earnings MoM |
Sep |
0.30 |
0.3 |
02-Oct-26 |
United States |
Average Hourly Earnings YoY |
Sep |
3.15 |
3.1 |
02-Oct-26 |
United States |
Unemployment Rate |
Sep |
4.10 |
4.1 |
T = Third
P = Preliminary
The Asset Allocation Team at NEI Investments
Judith Chan, CFA – Vice President, Head of Asset Allocation
Mateo Marks, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Adam Ludwick, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Anthony Rago, B.A.Sc. – Senior Asset Allocation Analyst