Weekly Market Pulse - Week ending July 11, 2025
Market developments
Equities: U.S. stocks reached new record highs before fresh tariff escalations and concerns about a controversial fiscal bill created some uncertainty, driving the S&P 500 Index lower to end the week. European equities were strong, while Asian markets displayed mixed performance.
Fixed Income: Treasury yields in the U.S. were steady after government bond sales, with the 10-year US Treasury yield closing around 4.4%. Markets were digesting trade shifts and speculation about Federal Reserve rate cuts. The potential for consumer confidence to wane and push towards a recession remained a concern for the FOMC.
Commodities: Commodity markets experienced strong performance. Gold was up around 0.5%, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. Copper surged over 9% while Oil rallied over 2% even as we saw an increase in U.S. crude inventories and OPEC+ decisions to raise production levels.
Performance (price return)
SECURITY |
PRICE |
WEEK |
1 MONTH |
3 MONTH |
YTD |
Equities ($Local) |
|
|
|
|
|
S&P/TSX Composite |
27,023.25 |
-0.05% |
1.88% |
14.56% |
9.28% |
S&P 500 |
6,259.75 |
-0.31% |
3.94% |
16.71% |
6.43% |
NASDAQ |
20,585.53 |
-0.08% |
4.94% |
23.09% |
6.60% |
DAX |
24,255.31 |
1.97% |
1.28% |
19.05% |
21.83% |
NIKKEI 225 |
39,569.68 |
-0.61% |
2.99% |
17.82% |
-0.81% |
Shanghai Composite |
3,510.18 |
1.09% |
3.17% |
8.40% |
4.73% |
Fixed Income (Performance in %) |
|
|
|
|
|
Canada Aggregate Bond |
236.52 |
-0.28% |
0.08% |
0.82% |
0.49% |
US Aggregate Bond |
2267.89 |
0.04% |
0.89% |
2.52% |
3.60% |
Europe Aggregate Bond |
244.70 |
-0.68% |
-0.58% |
0.53% |
0.38% |
US High Yield Bond |
28.09 |
-0.08% |
1.39% |
6.21% |
4.70% |
Commodities ($USD) |
|
|
|
|
|
Oil |
68.45 |
2.16% |
0.44% |
11.30% |
-4.56% |
Gold |
3355.59 |
0.55% |
0.01% |
3.64% |
27.86% |
Copper |
556.20 |
9.12% |
15.53% |
22.97% |
38.13% |
Currencies ($USD) |
|
|
|
|
|
US Dollar Index |
97.87 |
0.71% |
-0.77% |
-2.23% |
-9.79% |
Loonie |
1.3692 |
-0.66% |
-0.15% |
1.34% |
5.05% |
Euro |
0.8555 |
-0.76% |
1.75% |
2.93% |
12.90% |
Yen |
147.43 |
-2.01% |
-1.95% |
-2.64% |
6.63% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of July 11, 2025
Central Bank Interest Rates
Central Bank |
Current Rate |
December 2025 |
Bank of Canada |
2.75% |
2.53% |
U.S. Federal Reserve |
4.50% |
3.83% |
European Central Bank |
2.00% |
1.72% |
Bank of England |
4.25% |
3.70% |
Bank of Japan |
0.50% |
0.63% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of July 11, 2025
*Expected rates are based on bond futures pricing
Macro developments
Canada – Canadian Unemployment Rate Eases
Canada's unemployment rate fell to 6.9% in June 2025, down from 7% the previous month, defying expectations for an increase. This was the first improvement since January, with a decrease in the number of unemployed and an increase in total employment, signaling resilience amid economic uncertainties.
U.S. – No Notable Releases
No notable releases this week.
International – U.K. Economy Contracts, Eurozone Retail Sales Decline, China's Consumer Prices Rise, Japan's Producer Prices Slow
The British economy contracted by 0.1% in May, following a 0.3% decline in April, raising concerns about a potential contraction in Q2. Manufacturing and mining outputs fell significantly, although services saw slight growth. Overall GDP growth for the three months leading to May was 0.5%.
In May, Eurozone retail sales dropped by 0.7%, the largest decline since August 2023, following a 0.3% increase in April. This downturn was driven by reduced demand for non-food items, fuel and food, drinks and tobacco. Year-over-year growth in retail trade slowed to 1.8% in May from 2.7% in April.
In June, China's consumer prices increased by 0.1% year-over-year, reversing a previous decline and exceeding market expectations. This rise was fueled by e-commerce events, government subsidies and improved trade relations with the U.S. Although food prices continued to decline, core inflation hit its highest level in 14 months.
Japan's producer prices rose 2.9% year-over-year in June 2025, slowing from 3.2% in May and matching forecasts. This marked the lowest producer inflation since August 2024, with cost reductions in several sectors, including food and machinery. Monthly producer prices fell by 0.2%, marking the second consecutive decline.
Quick look ahead
DATE |
COUNTRY / REGION |
EVENT |
|
SURVEY |
PRIOR |
14-Jul-25 |
China |
GDP YoY |
2Q |
5.1 |
5.4 |
14-Jul-25 |
China |
Retail Sales YoY |
Jun |
5.2 |
6.4 |
15-Jul-25 |
United States |
CPI MoM |
Jun |
0.3 |
0.1 |
15-Jul-25 |
United States |
CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM |
Jun |
0.3 |
0.1 |
15-Jul-25 |
United States |
CPI YoY |
Jun |
2.6 |
2.4 |
15-Jul-25 |
United States |
CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY |
Jun |
2.9 |
2.8 |
15-Jul-25 |
Canada |
CPI NSA MoM |
Jun |
0.2 |
0.6 |
15-Jul-25 |
Canada |
CPI YoY |
Jun |
2.0 |
1.7 |
16-Jul-25 |
United Kingdom |
CPI MoM |
Jun |
0.1 |
0.2 |
16-Jul-25 |
United Kingdom |
CPI YoY |
Jun |
3.4 |
3.4 |
16-Jul-25 |
United Kingdom |
CPI Core YoY |
Jun |
3.4 |
3.5 |
16-Jul-25 |
United States |
PPI Final Demand MoM |
Jun |
0.2 |
0.1 |
16-Jul-25 |
United States |
PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM |
Jun |
0.2 |
0.1 |
16-Jul-25 |
United States |
PPI Final Demand YoY |
Jun |
2.5 |
2.6 |
16-Jul-25 |
United States |
PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY |
Jun |
2.7 |
3.0 |
17-Jul-25 |
United Kingdom |
ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths |
May |
4.6 |
4.6 |
17-Jul-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI YoY |
Jun F |
2.0 |
2.0 |
17-Jul-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI MoM |
Jun F |
0.3 |
0.3 |
17-Jul-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI Core YoY |
Jun F |
2.3 |
2.3 |
17-Jul-25 |
United States |
Retail Sales Advance MoM |
Jun |
0.2 |
(0.9) |
17-Jul-25 |
United States |
Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas |
Jun |
0.4 |
(0.1) |
17-Jul-25 |
United States |
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM |
Jun |
0.3 |
(0.3) |
17-Jul-25 |
Japan |
Natl CPI YoY |
Jun |
3.3 |
3.5 |
17-Jul-25 |
Japan |
Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY |
Jun |
3.3 |
3.7 |
F = Final
The Asset Allocation Team at NEI Investments
Judith Chan, CFA – Vice President, Head of Multi-Asset Portfolios
Mateo Marks, CFA – Senior Multi Asset Portfolio Analyst
Adam Ludwick, CFA – Senior Multi Asset Portfolio Analyst
Anthony Rago, B.A.Sc. – Senior Multi Asset Portfolio Analyst
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