Weekly Market Pulse - Week ending November 14, 2025
Market developments
Equities: Global equity markets experienced a volatile week, marked by a defensive shift in sentiment. Initially, markets were boosted by the resolution of the government shutdown, but this optimism faded. A tech sell-off, driven by concerns over high valuations and potential overinvestment in AI, led to a sharp reversal, particularly in the U.S. Overall, the week was characterized by a "repricing phase" as markets adjusted to fading expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts and reassessed technology valuations.
Fixed Income: Global bond markets were mixed as investors balanced policy uncertainty with heavy supply and risk-off sentiment. U.S. Treasury yields edged higher early in the week. 10-year yields hovered near 4.10%, while the curve steepened slightly as long-end rates rose more than short maturities, before easing later amid hopes of a resolution to the prolonged government shutdown. Global aggregate indices were roughly flat, while emerging market debt saw mild gains supported by softer dollar moves.
Commodities: Commodities posted a strong week overall, led by precious metals and industrial metals, while energy was mixed, extending their year-to-date leadership as investors sought safe havens amid equity volatility.
Performance (price return)
SECURITY |
PRICE |
WEEK |
1 MONTH |
3 MONTH |
YTD |
Equities ($Local) |
|
|
|
|
|
S&P/TSX Composite |
30,326.46 |
1.38% |
-0.09% |
8.63% |
22.64% |
S&P 500 |
6,734.11 |
0.08% |
1.35% |
4.11% |
14.49% |
NASDAQ |
22,900.59 |
-0.45% |
1.68% |
5.48% |
18.59% |
DAX |
23,876.55 |
1.30% |
-1.49% |
-2.05% |
19.93% |
NIKKEI 225 |
50,376.53 |
0.20% |
7.53% |
18.12% |
26.27% |
Shanghai Composite |
3,990.49 |
-0.18% |
3.24% |
8.84% |
19.06% |
Fixed Income (Performance in %) |
|
|
|
|
|
Canada Aggregate Bond |
242.95 |
-0.01% |
0.27% |
2.63% |
3.22% |
US Aggregate Bond |
2336.47 |
-0.08% |
-0.29% |
2.10% |
6.74% |
Europe Aggregate Bond |
247.36 |
-0.12% |
-0.24% |
0.58% |
1.48% |
US High Yield Bond |
28.76 |
0.11% |
0.34% |
1.52% |
7.19% |
Commodities ($USD) |
|
|
|
|
|
Oil |
59.90 |
0.25% |
2.04% |
-6.35% |
-16.48% |
Gold |
4084.85 |
2.09% |
-1.40% |
22.47% |
55.64% |
Copper |
505.20 |
1.92% |
0.58% |
12.78% |
25.47% |
Currencies ($USD) |
|
|
|
|
|
US Dollar Index |
99.27 |
-0.33% |
0.23% |
1.04% |
-8.49% |
Loonie |
1.402 |
0.17% |
0.18% |
-1.45% |
2.60% |
Euro |
0.8604 |
0.49% |
0.14% |
-0.22% |
12.26% |
Yen |
154.56 |
-0.74% |
-1.76% |
-4.40% |
1.71% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of November 14, 2025
Central Bank Interest Rates
Central Bank |
Current Rate |
March 2026 |
Bank of Canada |
2.25% |
2.21% |
U.S. Federal Reserve |
4.00% |
3.56% |
European Central Bank |
2.00% |
1.89% |
Bank of England |
4.00% |
3.62% |
Bank of Japan |
0.50% |
0.70% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of November 14, 2025
*Expected rates are based on bond futures pricing
Macro developments
Canada – – No Notable Releases
No notable releases this week.
U.S. – No Notable Releases
No notable releases this week.
International – U.K. Jobless Rate Hits Four-Year High, U.K. Growth Slows Sharply, Eurozone Shows Modest Resilience, China’s Inflation Rebounds, China’s Retail Sales Lose Momentum
The U.K. unemployment rate increased to 5.0% in Q3, the highest since mid-2021 and slightly above expectations. Joblessness rose by 117,000, mainly among those unemployed for short and long durations, while total employment fell for the first time since early 2024. The employment rate edged down to 75.0% and the activity rate stayed at 79.0%.
The U.K. economy grew just 0.1% in Q3, down from 0.3% in Q2 and below forecasts. Production contracted 0.5%, led by manufacturing and mining, with auto output plunging after a cyberattack at Jaguar Land Rover. Services rose modestly, construction barely grew and GDP increased 1.3% year-over-year, slightly missing expectations.
Eurozone GDP grew 0.2% in Q3, up from 0.1% previously. Spain led with 0.6% growth, supported by strong spending and investment, while France rebounded on exports. Germany stagnated and Italy flatlined amid weak industry and services. Annual growth reached 1.4%, suggesting resilience despite geopolitical and trade uncertainties.
China’s consumer prices rose 0.2% year-over-year in October, reversing a prior decline and marking the fastest pace since January. Non-food inflation accelerated due to trade-in programs and holiday spending, while food prices fell at a slower rate. Core inflation climbed to 1.2%, the highest in 20 months and monthly prices rose 0.2%, the strongest in three months.
China’s retail sales rose 2.9% in October, slightly below September’s pace but beating expectations. Gains in food, jewellery, clothing, cosmetics and electronics offset sharp declines in autos, appliances and building materials. For the first ten months of 2025, retail trade grew 4.3% year-over-year.
Quick look ahead
DATE |
COUNTRY / REGION |
EVENT |
|
SURVEY |
PRIOR |
16-Nov-25 |
Japan |
GDP Annualized SA QoQ |
3Q P |
(2.4) |
2.2 |
16-Nov-25 |
Japan |
GDP SA QoQ |
3Q P |
-0.6 |
0.5 |
17-Nov-25 |
Canada |
CPI NSA MoM |
Oct |
0.2 |
0.1 |
17-Nov-25 |
Canada |
CPI YoY |
Oct |
2.2 |
2.4 |
19-Nov-25 |
United Kingdom |
CPI MoM |
Oct |
0.3 |
|
19-Nov-25 |
United Kingdom |
CPI YoY |
Oct |
3.5 |
3.8 |
19-Nov-25 |
United Kingdom |
CPI Core YoY |
Oct |
3.4 |
3.5 |
19-Nov-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI YoY |
Oct F |
2.1 |
2.1 |
19-Nov-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI MoM |
Oct F |
0.2 |
0.2 |
19-Nov-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI Core YoY |
Oct F |
2.4 |
2.4 |
19-Nov-25 |
China |
1-Year Loan Prime Rate |
|
3 |
3 |
19-Nov-25 |
China |
5-Year Loan Prime Rate |
|
3.5 |
3.5 |
20-Nov-25 |
Japan |
Natl CPI YoY |
Oct |
3 |
2.9 |
20-Nov-25 |
Japan |
Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY |
Oct |
3 |
2.9 |
20-Nov-25 |
Japan |
S&P Global Japan PMI Composite |
Nov P |
|
51.5 |
20-Nov-25 |
Japan |
S&P Global Japan PMI Mfg |
Nov P |
|
48.2 |
20-Nov-25 |
Japan |
S&P Global Japan PMI Services |
Nov P |
|
53.1 |
21-Nov-25 |
United Kingdom |
Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel MoM |
Oct |
|
0.5 |
21-Nov-25 |
United Kingdom |
Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel YoY |
Oct |
1.5 |
1.5 |
21-Nov-25 |
United Kingdom |
Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel MoM |
Oct |
-0.2 |
0.6 |
21-Nov-25 |
United Kingdom |
Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel YoY |
Oct |
2.8 |
2.3 |
21-Nov-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI |
Nov P |
50.2 |
50 |
21-Nov-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
HCOB Eurozone Services PMI |
Nov P |
52.8 |
53 |
21-Nov-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI |
Nov P |
52.5 |
52.5 |
21-Nov-25 |
United Kingdom |
S&P Global UK Services PMI |
Nov P |
52 |
52.3 |
21-Nov-25 |
United Kingdom |
S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI |
Nov P |
49.2 |
49.7 |
21-Nov-25 |
United Kingdom |
S&P Global UK Composite PMI |
Nov P |
51.8 |
52.2 |
21-Nov-25 |
Canada |
Retail Sales MoM |
Sep |
-0.7 |
1 |
21-Nov-25 |
Canada |
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM |
Sep |
|
0.7 |
21-Nov-25 |
United States |
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI |
Nov P |
52 |
52.5 |
21-Nov-25 |
United States |
S&P Global US Services PMI |
Nov P |
54.5 |
54.8 |
21-Nov-25 |
United States |
S&P Global US Composite PMI |
Nov P |
|
54.6 |
P = Preliminary
F = Final
The Asset Allocation Team at NEI Investments
Judith Chan, CFA – Vice President, Head of Asset Allocation
Mateo Marks, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Adam Ludwick, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Anthony Rago, B.A.Sc. – Senior Asset Allocation Analyst
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