Weekly Market Pulse - Week ending November 7, 2025
Market developments
Equities: Global equity markets experienced a volatile week, with a general trend towards a cautious or defensive sentiment as the week closed. A tech-led selloff in the U.S. and concerns about high valuations, particularly in the technology sector, led to losses. Asian markets showed some firmness, particularly in Hong Kong, driven by hopes around China's tech self-sufficiency push.
Fixed Income: This week, fixed income markets were influenced by shifting expectations regarding monetary policy as inflation data and economic indicators emerged. U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated, with the short end of the curve seeing upward pressure. Overall, the fixed income market remained dynamic, with credit spreads tightening slightly in response to stable corporate earnings, while municipal bonds continued to attract interest from investors seeking relative safety.
Commodities: The commodities sector showed mixed performance. Crude oil prices traded lower, while natural gas and fuel products posted strong advances while, precious metals, like gold and silver, saw small gains.
Performance (price return)
SECURITY |
PRICE |
WEEK |
1 MONTH |
3 MONTH |
YTD |
Equities ($Local) |
|
|
|
|
|
S&P/TSX Composite |
29,912.19 |
-1.15% |
-1.45% |
7.75% |
20.97% |
S&P 500 |
6,728.80 |
-1.63% |
0.21% |
6.13% |
14.40% |
NASDAQ |
23,004.54 |
-3.04% |
0.95% |
8.29% |
19.13% |
DAX |
23,569.96 |
-1.62% |
-3.35% |
-2.57% |
18.39% |
NIKKEI 225 |
50,276.37 |
-4.07% |
4.85% |
22.45% |
26.02% |
Shanghai Composite |
3,997.56 |
1.08% |
2.96% |
9.83% |
19.27% |
Fixed Income (Performance in %) |
|
|
|
|
|
Canada Aggregate Bond |
243.96 |
0.20% |
1.11% |
2.86% |
3.65% |
US Aggregate Bond |
2339.16 |
0.06% |
0.45% |
2.13% |
6.86% |
Europe Aggregate Bond |
247.67 |
-0.22% |
0.60% |
0.41% |
1.60% |
US High Yield Bond |
28.75 |
-0.24% |
-0.19% |
1.71% |
7.13% |
Commodities ($USD) |
|
|
|
|
|
Oil |
59.87 |
-1.82% |
-3.01% |
-6.28% |
-16.52% |
Gold |
4001.66 |
-0.03% |
0.42% |
17.82% |
52.47% |
Copper |
495.90 |
-2.55% |
-2.72% |
12.74% |
23.16% |
Currencies ($USD) |
|
|
|
|
|
US Dollar Index |
99.54 |
-0.26% |
0.98% |
1.16% |
-8.25% |
Loonie |
1.4033 |
-0.16% |
-0.59% |
-2.05% |
2.50% |
Euro |
0.8646 |
0.25% |
-0.79% |
-0.86% |
11.72% |
Yen |
153.43 |
0.36% |
-1.00% |
-4.10% |
2.46% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of November 7, 2025
Central Bank Interest Rates
Central Bank |
Current Rate |
March 2026 |
Bank of Canada |
2.25% |
2.19% |
U.S. Federal Reserve |
4.00% |
3.50% |
European Central Bank |
2.00% |
1.87% |
Bank of England |
4.00% |
3.62% |
Bank of Japan |
0.50% |
0.72% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of November 7, 2025
*Expected rates are based on bond futures pricing
Macro developments
Canada – Signs of Stabilisation in Manufacturing, Unemployment Rate Falls Unexpectedly
The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.6 in October from 47.7 in September, showing the slowest contraction since January. Output and new orders declined at a softer pace, though tariffs and trade uncertainty continued to weigh on exports and input costs. Employment fell slightly as firms avoided hiring, while selling price inflation picked up. Business confidence improved but remained below trend due to ongoing trade policy concerns.
Canada’s unemployment rate dropped to 6.9% in October from 7.1%, defying expectations for no change. Employment rose by 66,600 jobs, while the number of unemployed individuals fell by 49,200. Joblessness declined for core-aged men and was stable for core-aged women, while youth unemployment fell for the first time since February. Long-term unemployment remained steady at 21.3% of the jobless population.
U.S. – Manufacturing Weakens Further
The ISM U.S. Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.7 in October, marking eight straight months of contraction. Production, new orders, inventories and backlogs all declined, while employment continued to shrink as firms focused on managing headcount. Price pressures eased and supplier deliveries slowed. Only two major industries, Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products and Transportation Equipment, expanded.
International – U.K. Holds Rates, Eurozone Prices and Retail Sales Fall
The Bank of England kept its rate at 4% in a close 5–4 vote, with rising support for easing. Policymakers noted progress in disinflation, supported by weaker pay growth and a softening economy. Risks to the inflation target are now more balanced, though further rate cuts will depend on incoming data. If disinflation continues, gradual rate reductions are likely.
Eurozone industrial producer prices fell 0.1% in September, driven by lower energy costs. Prices for intermediate and capital goods were flat, while durable and non-durable consumer goods saw slight increases. On a yearly basis, prices declined 0.2%, matching expectations and continuing the downward trend from August.
Retail sales in the Euro Area fell 0.1% in September, missing expectations and marking a third month of weak performance. Fuel and non-food sales declined, while food, drinks and tobacco sales were flat. Among major economies, Italy, the Netherlands and France saw declines, while Spain and Germany posted modest gains. Annual growth slowed to 1.0% from 1.6%.
Quick look ahead
DATE |
COUNTRY / REGION |
EVENT |
|
SURVEY |
PRIOR |
08-Nov-25 |
China |
PPI YoY |
Oct |
(2.3) |
(2.3) |
08-Nov-25 |
China |
CPI YoY |
Oct |
(0.1) |
(0.3) |
11-Nov-25 |
United Kingdom |
ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths |
Sep |
4.9 |
4.8 |
12-Nov-25 |
Japan |
PPI YoY |
Oct |
2.5 |
2.7 |
12-Nov-25 |
Japan |
PPI MoM |
Oct |
0.3 |
0.3 |
13-Nov-25 |
United Kingdom |
GDP QoQ |
3Q P |
0.2 |
0.3 |
13-Nov-25 |
United Kingdom |
GDP YoY |
3Q P |
1.35 |
1.4 |
13-Nov-25 |
United States |
CPI MoM |
Oct |
0.21 |
0.3 |
13-Nov-25 |
United States |
Core CPI MoM |
Oct |
0.26 |
0.2 |
13-Nov-25 |
United States |
CPI YoY |
Oct |
3.05 |
3.0 |
13-Nov-25 |
United States |
Core CPI YoY |
Oct |
3.0 |
3.0 |
13-Nov-25 |
China |
Retail Sales YoY |
Oct |
2.8 |
3.0 |
13-Nov-25 |
China |
Retail Sales YTD YoY |
Oct |
4.4 |
4.5 |
14-Nov-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
GDP SA QoQ |
3Q S |
0.2 |
0.2 |
14-Nov-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
GDP SA YoY |
3Q S |
1.3 |
1.3 |
14-Nov-25 |
United States |
Retail Sales Advance MoM |
Oct |
|
|
14-Nov-25 |
United States |
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM |
Oct |
|
|
14-Nov-25 |
United States |
Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas |
Oct |
|
|
14-Nov-25 |
United States |
PPI Final Demand MoM |
Oct |
|
|
14-Nov-25 |
United States |
PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM |
Oct |
|
|
14-Nov-25 |
United States |
PPI Final Demand YoY |
Oct |
|
|
14-Nov-25 |
United States |
PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY |
Oct |
|
|
P = Preliminary
S= Second
The Asset Allocation Team at NEI Investments
Judith Chan, CFA – Vice President, Head of Asset Allocation
Mateo Marks, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Adam Ludwick, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Anthony Rago, B.A.Sc. – Senior Asset Allocation Analyst
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This material is for informational and educational purposes and it is not intended to provide specific advice including, without limitation, investment, financial, tax or similar matters. This document is published by AFI and unless indicated otherwise, all views expressed in this document are those of AFI. The views expressed herein are subject to change without notice as markets change over time.