Weekly Market Pulse - Week ending October 24, 2025
Market developments
Equities: U.S. and European stocks remained steady near recent highs, indicating continued confidence in earnings and the economy. The S&P 500 closed at record levels, while the FTSE 100 edged higher, boosted by gains in energy and financials. Market sentiment leaned cautiously optimistic, with traders closely monitoring late-month data and early earnings reports.
Fixed Income: Fixed-income markets experienced a period of consolidation, characterized by stable rates and flows primarily driven by technical adjustments. Developed markets saw a steepening yield curve due to increased fiscal pressures, while emerging markets maintained stability supported by solid fundamentals.
Commodities: The commodities market showed mixed performance. Gold experienced a pullback, declining over 6% from recent highs but still trading above $4,000/oz. Oil prices gained more than 2%, supported by steady demand and a tight supply outlook. Silver experienced significant volatility, declining nearly 8% midweek before recovering as traders adjusted positions.
Performance (price return)
SECURITY |
PRICE |
WEEK |
1 MONTH |
3 MONTH |
YTD |
Equities ($Local) |
|
|
|
|
|
S&P/TSX Composite |
30,353.07 |
0.81% |
2.00% |
10.89% |
22.75% |
S&P 500 |
6,791.69 |
1.92% |
2.32% |
6.73% |
15.47% |
NASDAQ |
23,204.87 |
2.31% |
3.14% |
10.20% |
20.17% |
DAX |
24,239.89 |
1.72% |
2.42% |
-0.23% |
21.75% |
NIKKEI 225 |
49,299.65 |
3.61% |
8.04% |
17.87% |
23.57% |
Shanghai Composite |
3,950.31 |
2.88% |
2.51% |
9.56% |
17.86% |
Fixed Income (Performance in %) |
|
|
|
|
|
Canada Aggregate Bond |
243.28 |
0.01% |
0.94% |
3.77% |
3.36% |
US Aggregate Bond |
2349.11 |
0.08% |
1.18% |
3.79% |
7.31% |
Europe Aggregate Bond |
247.92 |
-0.23% |
0.94% |
1.01% |
1.70% |
US High Yield Bond |
28.78 |
0.20% |
-0.06% |
2.08% |
7.27% |
Commodities ($USD) |
|
|
|
|
|
Oil |
61.45 |
6.80% |
-5.45% |
-6.94% |
-14.32% |
Gold |
4100.27 |
-3.56% |
9.75% |
21.72% |
56.23% |
Copper |
511.60 |
2.95% |
7.65% |
-11.44% |
27.06% |
Currencies ($USD) |
|
|
|
|
|
US Dollar Index |
98.90 |
0.47% |
1.05% |
1.56% |
-8.84% |
Loonie |
1.3996 |
0.17% |
-0.71% |
-2.56% |
2.77% |
Euro |
0.8594 |
-0.16% |
-0.87% |
-0.97% |
12.39% |
Yen |
152.76 |
-1.41% |
-2.53% |
-3.76% |
2.91% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of October 24, 2025
Central Bank Interest Rates
Central Bank |
Current Rate |
March 2026 |
Bank of Canada |
2.50% |
2.14% |
U.S. Federal Reserve |
4.25% |
3.34% |
European Central Bank |
2.00% |
1.85% |
Bank of England |
4.00% |
3.60% |
Bank of Japan |
0.50% |
0.73% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of October 24, 2025
*Expected rates are based on bond futures pricing
Macro developments
Canada – Inflation Surge, Retail Sales Decline
In September, Canada’s annual inflation rate increased to 2.4%, surpassing expectations and marking the highest rate since February. Despite the continued decline in gasoline prices, overall transportation costs increased. Food inflation picked up, driven by higher grocery prices, while household operations and recreation also saw increased inflation. The core inflation rate remained steady at 3.2%.
Retail sales in Canada are projected to have dropped by 0.7% in September, marking the third-largest decline this year. This follows a significant 1% increase in August, primarily driven by motor vehicle sales. In contrast, fuel sales fell for the second consecutive month, while core retail sales rebounded in August.
U.S. – Inflation Rises, Composite PMI and Economic Trends
The U.S. annual inflation rate rose to 3% in September, exceeding expectations and reaching its highest level since January. Energy prices saw a notable increase, while food and transportation services experienced slower growth. Core inflation also decreased to 3%, contrasting with market predictions. Monthly CPI growth was below expectations, driven largely by gasoline price increases.
The S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI rose to 54.8 in October 2025, the highest since July, indicating growth above the Q3 average with expansion in both manufacturing and services. October marked the strongest increase in new business for 2025, although exports continued to decline, leading to a substantial buildup of unsold inventories in manufacturing. Employment growth improved slightly but remained subdued, particularly in manufacturing, as firms faced policy uncertainties and tariff concerns, despite sentiment being bolstered by lower interest rates. Output prices increased at the slowest pace since April, highlighting ongoing cost challenges from rising input costs due to tariffs and wage pressures.
International – U.K. Inflation Stability, U.K. Retail Sales Growth, U.K. Composite PMI Recovery, Eurozone PMI Expansion, Japan's Inflation Increase, Japan's PMI Decline, China's GDP Growth, China's Retail Sales Slowdown
In September, the U.K. annual inflation rate remained steady at 3.8%, below forecasts. Transportation costs rose significantly, influenced by higher fuel prices, while inflation in food and non-alcoholic beverages slowed. The CPI showed no month-on-month change and core inflation unexpectedly decreased.
U.K. retail sales volumes increased by 0.5% in September, defying predictions of a decline. This marked the fourth consecutive monthly rise, largely supported by growth in non-food stores. Overall, online sales continued to rise significantly, aided by favourable weather conditions.
The S&P Global U.K. Composite PMI rose to 51.1 in October, indicating expansion in the services sector and a softer decline in manufacturing. New orders returned to growth and job losses eased, although higher taxes contributed to lower employment levels. Input cost inflation slowed, and business activity expectations improved.
The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI increased to 52.2 in October, reflecting strong expansion driven by the services sector. New orders accelerated, though export business faced challenges. Staffing levels rose and input cost inflation eased, but business confidence declined.
Japan’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.9% in September, driven by higher electricity and gas prices. Price growth was observed across various sectors, while food prices showed a slight easing. Core inflation matched consensus expectations.
The S&P Global Japan Composite PMI fell to 50.9 in October, signaling slower growth for the second consecutive month. Service activity expanded at a weaker pace and manufacturing output shrank more distinctly. Input costs rose sharply, contributing to increased output charges.
China’s GDP grew by 1.1% in Q3 2025, exceeding market expectations due to government support measures. However, trade tensions with the U.S. pose risks to the export-driven economy. Challenges remain from weak domestic demand and operational strains on firms.
China’s retail sales increased by 3.0% year-on-year in September, reflecting a slowdown from the previous month. Various sectors experienced weaker sales, particularly household appliances and jewelry. However, there was stronger growth in food and clothing sales. Monthly retail trade fell slightly, but overall activity expanded in the first nine months of 2025.
Quick look ahead
DATE |
COUNTRY / REGION |
EVENT |
|
SURVEY |
PRIOR |
29-Oct-25 |
Canada |
Bank of Canada Rate Decision |
|
2.3 |
2.5 |
29-Oct-25 |
United States |
FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) |
|
4.0 |
4.3 |
29-Oct-25 |
United States |
FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) |
|
3.8 |
2.9 |
30-Oct-25 |
Japan |
BOJ Target Rate |
|
0.5 |
48.3 |
30-Oct-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
GDP SA QoQ |
3Q A |
0.1 |
0.1 |
30-Oct-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
GDP SA YoY |
3Q A |
1.2 |
1.5 |
30-Oct-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
Unemployment Rate |
Sep |
6.3 |
6.3 |
30-Oct-25 |
United States |
GDP Annualized QoQ |
3Q A |
3.0 |
3.8 |
30-Oct-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
ECB Deposit Facility Rate |
|
2.0 |
2.0 |
30-Oct-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
ECB Main Refinancing Rate |
|
2.2 |
2.2 |
30-Oct-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
ECB Marginal Lending Facility |
|
2.4 |
2.4 |
30-Oct-25 |
Japan |
Jobless Rate |
Sep |
2.5 |
2.6 |
30-Oct-25 |
Japan |
Tokyo CPI YoY |
Oct |
2.5 |
2.5 |
30-Oct-25 |
Japan |
Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY |
Oct |
2.6 |
2.5 |
30-Oct-25 |
Japan |
Retail Sales MoM |
Sep |
0.8 |
(1.1) |
30-Oct-25 |
Japan |
Retail Sales YoY |
Sep |
0.7 |
(1.1) |
30-Oct-25 |
China |
Manufacturing PMI |
Oct |
49.6 |
49.8 |
30-Oct-25 |
China |
Non-manufacturing PMI |
Oct |
50.2 |
50.0 |
30-Oct-25 |
China |
Composite PMI |
Oct |
|
50.6 |
31-Oct-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI Estimate YoY |
Oct P |
2.1 |
2.2 |
31-Oct-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI MoM |
Oct P |
0.2 |
0.1 |
31-Oct-25 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI Core YoY |
Oct P |
2.3 |
2.4 |
31-Oct-25 |
United States |
PCE Price Index MoM |
Sep |
|
0.3 |
31-Oct-25 |
United States |
PCE Price Index YoY |
Sep |
|
2.7 |
31-Oct-25 |
United States |
Core PCE Price Index MoM |
Sep |
0.2 |
0.2 |
31-Oct-25 |
United States |
Core PCE Price Index YoY |
Sep |
|
2.9 |
31-Oct-25 |
Canada |
GDP MoM |
Aug |
|
0.2 |
31-Oct-25 |
Canada |
GDP YoY |
Aug |
0.9 |
0.9 |
A = Advance
P = Preliminary
The Asset Allocation Team at NEI Investments
Judith Chan, CFA – Vice President, Head of Asset Allocation
Mateo Marks, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Adam Ludwick, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Anthony Rago, B.A.Sc. – Senior Asset Allocation Analyst
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