Weekly Market Pulse - Week ending January 9, 2025
Market developments
Equities: Global equities kicked off 2026 on a strong footing, fueled by optimism surrounding AI developments. U.S. equities suggest cautious gains amid resilient corporate earnings and easing inflation, while European indices and emerging Asian markets also advanced on broadening participation beyond tech. Strategists expect returns in 2026 to be earnings-driven rather than multiple expansion, with Goldman Sachs projecting ~11% total return as economic growth and selective monetary easing support markets.
Fixed Income: In fixed income, markets remain constructive: yields are range-bound, and central banks, including the Fed, are signalling a gradual easing of rates, keeping the 10-year Treasury in the 3.75–4.25% zone. With inflation moderating and global growth subdued, income-focused returns are favoured.
Commodities: Commodities continue to show nuanced trends. Oil markets face an ongoing surplus, with output increasing in Latin America and the U.S., while gasoline demand plateaus, pressuring prices. Metals are supported by resilient demand, although agricultural prices remain under downward pressure from ample supply. Precious metals, especially gold, remain strong thanks to safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and policy uncertainties.
Performance (price return)
SECURITY |
PRICE |
WEEK |
1 MONTH |
3 MONTH |
YTD |
Equities ($Local) |
|
|
|
|
|
S&P/TSX Composite |
32,612.93 |
2.29% |
4.38% |
7.74% |
2.84% |
S&P 500 |
6,966.28 |
1.57% |
1.84% |
3.43% |
1.76% |
NASDAQ |
23,671.35 |
1.88% |
0.40% |
2.81% |
1.85% |
DAX |
25,261.64 |
2.94% |
4.55% |
2.64% |
3.15% |
NIKKEI 225 |
51,939.89 |
3.18% |
2.54% |
6.92% |
3.18% |
Shanghai Composite |
4,120.43 |
3.82% |
5.39% |
4.74% |
3.82% |
Fixed Income (Performance in %) |
|
|
|
|
|
Canada Aggregate Bond |
241.38 |
0.56% |
0.87% |
0.11% |
0.18% |
US Aggregate Bond |
2347.20 |
0.13% |
0.48% |
0.88% |
-0.07% |
Europe Aggregate Bond |
247.52 |
0.54% |
0.55% |
0.38% |
0.29% |
US High Yield Bond |
29.23 |
0.30% |
0.92% |
1.87% |
0.30% |
Commodities ($USD) |
|
|
|
|
|
Oil |
58.80 |
2.58% |
0.94% |
-4.41% |
2.40% |
Gold |
4507.79 |
4.05% |
7.12% |
13.35% |
4.36% |
Copper |
588.75 |
3.44% |
12.35% |
14.92% |
3.62% |
Currencies ($USD) |
|
|
|
|
|
US Dollar Index |
99.13 |
0.72% |
-0.09% |
-0.41% |
0.82% |
Loonie |
1.3911 |
-1.28% |
-0.47% |
0.78% |
-1.34% |
Euro |
0.8595 |
-0.72% |
0.07% |
0.61% |
-0.94% |
Yen |
157.9 |
-0.67% |
-0.65% |
-3.06% |
-0.75% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of January 9, 2026
Central Bank Interest Rates
Central Bank |
Current Rate |
March 2026 |
Bank of Canada |
2.25% |
2.25% |
U.S. Federal Reserve |
3.75% |
3.56% |
European Central Bank |
2.00% |
1.93% |
Bank of England |
3.75% |
3.62% |
Bank of Japan |
0.75% |
0.75% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of January 9, 2026
*Expected rates are based on bond futures pricing
Macro developments
Canada – Canada’s Jobless Rate Climbs
Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in December 2025 from 6.5%, exceeding expectations of 6.6% as more people entered the labour market. The number of unemployed increased by 73,000 to 1.6 million, while the labour force grew by 81,000, lifting participation to 65.4%. Net employment edged up by 8,200, driven by gains in full-time jobs that offset declines in part-time work.
U.S. – Unemployment Eases Slightly, Payroll Growth Slows
The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in December from 4.5%, slightly below forecasts. Unemployed persons dropped by 278,000 to 7.50 million, while employment rose by 232,000. The labour force shrank by 46,000, lowering participation to 62.4%. The broader U-6 rate eased to 8.4%, signalling some improvement in labour market slack.
The U.S. economy added 50,000 jobs in December, below expectations and down from a revised 56,000 in November. Gains were concentrated in food services, health care and social assistance, while retail trade lost jobs. Revisions lowered October and November figures by a combined 76,000. For 2025, payrolls grew by 584,000, averaging 49,000 per month, far below 2024’s 2.0 million increase.
International – Eurozone Inflation Hits ECB Target, China’s Inflation Edges Higher
Eurozone inflation eased to 2.0% in December from 2.1%, the lowest since August and in line with the ECB’s target. The slowdown reflected softer price growth in services and industrial goods, alongside a sharper drop in energy costs. Core inflation fell to 2.3%, slightly below expectations. Germany, France and Spain saw inflation ease, while Italy posted a small uptick.
China’s inflation rose to 0.8% in December from 0.7%, the highest since February 2023 but below forecasts. Food prices surged, while non-food inflation held steady. Clothing, health care and education costs increased, but housing and transport prices fell. Core inflation stayed at 1.2%, its highest in 20 months. For 2025, inflation was flat, missing the 2% target.
Quick look ahead
DATE |
COUNTRY / REGION |
EVENT |
|
SURVEY |
PRIOR |
13-Jan-26 |
United States |
CPI MoM |
Dec |
0.30 |
|
13-Jan-26 |
United States |
Core CPI MoM |
Dec |
0.30 |
|
13-Jan-26 |
United States |
CPI YoY |
Dec |
2.70 |
2.7 |
13-Jan-26 |
United States |
Core CPI YoY |
Dec |
2.70 |
2.6 |
14-Jan-26 |
United States |
PPI Final Demand MoM |
Nov |
0.25 |
|
14-Jan-26 |
United States |
PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM |
Nov |
0.20 |
|
14-Jan-26 |
United States |
PPI Final Demand YoY |
Nov |
2.60 |
|
14-Jan-26 |
United States |
PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY |
Nov |
|
|
14-Jan-26 |
United States |
Retail Sales Advance MoM |
Nov |
0.40 |
|
14-Jan-26 |
United States |
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM |
Nov |
0.35 |
0.4 |
14-Jan-26 |
United States |
Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas |
Nov |
0.30 |
0.5 |
14-Jan-26 |
Japan |
PPI MoM |
Dec |
0.20 |
0.3 |
14-Jan-26 |
Japan |
PPI YoY |
Dec |
2.40 |
2.7 |
The Asset Allocation Team at NEI Investments
Judith Chan, CFA – Vice President, Head of Asset Allocation
Mateo Marks, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Adam Ludwick, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Anthony Rago, B.A.Sc. – Senior Asset Allocation Analyst
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This material is for informational and educational purposes and it is not intended to provide specific advice including, without limitation, investment, financial, tax or similar matters. This document is published by AFI and unless indicated otherwise, all views expressed in this document are those of AFI. The views expressed herein are subject to change without notice as markets change over time.